All of a sudden, the invincible look vincible: the Oklahoma City Thunder have lost two of their last three games. To be fair, they came against good teams in the San Antonio Spurs and the Minnesota Timberwolves, but defeats are defeats, and the Thunder have now tripled the number in their loss column in less than a week.
Oklahoma City should have a solid chance to get back to winning ways when they welcome the Memphis Grizzlies tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET. They’ll have to do it without their top three centers, as Chet Holmgren (illness), Isaiah Hartenstein (calf), and Jaylin Williams (heel) have all been ruled out on the front end of a back-to-back. Alex Caruso (thumb), too, is out. Memphis will also be short-handed, with Zach Edey (ankle) remaining out and Ja Morant (ankle) set to miss his 15th game of the season. The Grizzlies’ injury crisis is so severe that they were forced to sign big man Christian Koloko to a hardship contract.
The Thunder are 15.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1200 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 230.5. Memphis is +750 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer my prediction.
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder preview, prediction
Memphis has gone 9-4 in its last 13 games, but those games have come against fairly weak opposition and seven of the wins came with Edey in the lineup. The Grizzlies have still cleaned up against bottom-feeders and struggled against top teams, posting a 2-12 record against teams at .500 or better and going 11-3 against teams below .500, but they can’t come into this game with much confidence, given that they just lost all four factors against the Washington Wizards in an eight-point defeat. Cam Spencer’s breakout season has been a revelation, but besides Spencer, questions still remain, with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jaylen Wells both struggling.
Oklahoma City, on the other hand, shouldn’t be too concerned about its losses this past week. San Antonio is a very good team — as it demonstrated by winning each of its three post-NBA Cup games despite Victor Wembanyama remaining on a minutes restriction — and the Thunder hardly batted an eye after losing by 42 in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals against the Timberwolves. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP front-runner for good reason, and Jalen Williams is starting to find his groove after returning from injury. Oklahoma City shot just six-for-24 from the field in the fourth quarter against the Timberwolves, which is more of a fluke than anything else.
Grizzlies at Thunder pick, best bet
The Thunder only have two genuine flaws: occasionally streaky three-point shooting and mediocre rebounding. Both proved to be an issue against Minnesota, when Oklahoma City lost the rebounding battle and shot just 28.2% from beyond the arc, and it also got out-rebounded and shot slightly worse than the Spurs in the Emirates NBA Cup semifinals. In both the NBA Cup and the defeat against the Timberwolves, the Thunder had a fully healthy rotation, and their rebounding percentage drops by 5.3 percentage points without Hartenstein on the floor and 1.9 percentage points without Holmgren. Holmgren and Caruso also have a positive impact on the team’s shooting while being arguably its two most impactful defenders.
Memphis isn’t well-suited to take advantage of those weaknesses. Without Edey, the Grizzlies’ rebounding percentage collapses from 58.4% (which would be the league’s best) to just 49.0% (the equivalent of its ninth-worst), and their opponents’ effective field goal percentage rises by 8.9 percentage points. The sample size (284 minutes) is extremely small, but the impact is definitely real. Offensively, Memphis has finished at the league’s fourth-lowest clip in the restricted area, so it probably won’t be able to exploit Oklahoma City’s slightly weakened rim protection. As is, opponents have shot just 50.0% within six feet with Jalen Williams as the nearest defender and 53.1% against Branden Carlson, so the Thunder still have the tools to mostly make up for Hartenstein’s and Holmgren’s absences. Plus, the Grizzlies have allowed the fourth-most wide-open three-point attempts this season, so Oklahoma City should be able to shoot the ball okay.
If it wants any chance of pulling off the upset, Memphis will have to shoot the absolute lights out and protect the ball, given that the Thunder have allowed a league-average number of wide-open threes and the third-most with the shooter between four and six feet away. The Grizzlies have been below-average on such shots, but they’ve been slightly better over the last 13 games, and across that span, Spencer has hit 61.1% of his wide-open looks and 45.8% of his threes with the nearest defender between four and six feet away. Memphis has been roughly a league-average ball-handling team this season, but it has been better without Morant, which could allow it to mitigate the damage against a Thunder team that easily leads the league in points off of turnovers. Oklahoma City should also be worse at forcing turnovers without Caruso, who would lead the league in steals for the third time in four seasons if he’d played enough minutes to qualify.
Given that the Thunder’s lack of a center and the fact that their leader in on-off plus/minus (Caruso) will be absent, expecting them to cover the 15.5-point spread would be a little too optimistic. Without Edey, the Grizzlies don’t have the personnel to take advantage of Oklahoma City’s mediocre rebounding and streaky shooting, but Spencer’s red-hot right hand should give them some sparks from deep, and the Thunder give up a few too many open threes. I don’t think any Oklahoma City fan would be too alarmed with a mere 15-point win.
