The Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots will square off for the Week 16 edition of Sunday Night Football.
New England has looked the part of a Super Bowl contender this season. They hold an 11-3 record and a clear path to the postseason. In contrast, the Baltimore Ravens have underwhelmed this year with plenty going wrong across the board. They hold a 7-7 record and are in need of a result tonight as they attempt to fight their way into the playoffs.
Looking at the odds of this matchup, the Ravens enter as three-point favorites and hold -180 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Patriots hold +150 odds of winning outright, and the game total is set at O/U 48.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 16 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Patriots at Ravens Best Prop Bets
Drake Maye Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-112)
It has been a stellar season for Drake Maye thus far. The North Carolina product is completing an NFL-best 70.9% of his pass attempts for 3,567 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Maye is averaging 254.8 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 243.5 passing yards in 10 of the 14 games.
This is a must-win spot for the Ravens, and oddsmakers are seemingly doubting Maye will have his same level of impact. But this is a Baltimore defense that has not inspired confidence. They rank 15th in points allowed and 23rd in yards given up this season. Against the pass, they rank 16th in net yards per pass attempt, 19th in EPA per play, and 26th in total passing yards allowed. Even while holding the Bengals scoreless last week, Joe Burrow threw for 225 yards. Burrow also had 261 passing yards against them two weeks earlier, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 284 yards in the game in between.
Maye is coming off a season-low 155 passing yards against the Bills last week. This marks the only time all season he has been held below 200 passing yards. Expect New England to get back to what brought them here in a test more difficult than what Baltimore’s record shows. Maye attempted just 23 pass attempts last week, which tied his second-fewest on the year. Baltimore is not the caliber of defense that has looked capable of slowing down Maye, and I like him to soar past 243.5 passing yards for the 11th time this season.
Drake Maye Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
Sticking with the potential MVP, Maye has also leaned on his legs at a high rate this year. He is averaging 25.9 rushing yards per game, which is down a shade from the 32.4 rushing yards he averaged as a rookie. The former third overall pick is coming off a 43-yard rushing performance last week and has at least three rush attempts in every game this season.
Interestingly enough, Maye also shows an increased willingness to lean on his legs when the Patriots are trailing. Across the 13 losses in his career, he is averaging 34.6 rushing yards per game. During matchups in which the Patriots have come out on top, he is posting 23.8 average rushing yards. With this being a far more important game for the Ravens from a seedings perspective, expect them to bring their best effort, and for it to be a strong chance that the Patriots must play from behind.
Baltimore has not been tasked with slowing down many mobile quarterbacks this year. Josh Allen rushed for 30 yards against them in the season opener, Caleb Williams picked up 24 rushing yards against them, C.J. Stroud tallied 30 yards on the ground, and Tyrod Taylor had 19 rushing yards, but they have primarily faced pure pocket passers. Expect this to work in Maye’s favor with it being a bit of an unfamiliar look. Most of his rushing production occurs on ad-lib scrambles, and it could take just one long rush to break this prop line. Count on Maye seeking out these rushing opportunities and ripping off over 21.5 rushing yards on the ground tonight.
Derrick Henry to Record 100+ Rushing Yards (+203)
It has not been a stellar season for Derrick Henry by his sky-high standards. The five-time Pro Bowler has tallied 233 rush attempts for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns, while adding 150 receiving yards. Henry’s 80.4 rushing yards per game are well below the 113.0 per game he averaged last year and the 126.7 he was averaging in the prime of his career. But Henry still plays with a level of physicality that is impossible to prepare for, and he has five games with 100+ rushing yards this year.
New England did a nice job building an identity in the trenches this offseason. They rank fifth in rushing yards allowed and second in rushing touchdowns conceded on the year. But this has fallen apart in recent weeks. James Cook III ripped off 107 rushing yards and two scores against them last week, Devin Singletary had 68 yards on 5.7 yards per carry the week prior, and Chase Brown had 107 rushing yards against them before this.
This is a must-win game for the Ravens, and expect them to put the ball in the hands of the players that matter most. Henry tends to only get better as games and seasons progress, and this is his time of year to put it all on display. The Alabama product had 100 yards on just 11 carries last week and 94 rushing yards before this. Expect a heavy workload tonight with plenty of opportunities for Henry to make things happen. The standard rushing prop is set at 80.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but I am taking the +204 swing for the former Offensive Player of the Year to crack triple-digits for the sixth time this season. Count on the Ravens giving him the ball frequently and for Henry to make the most of these chances to help keep their playoff hopes alive.
