Six games of NBA action are taking place across today’s slate. Tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET, the Miami Heat will take on the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden.
Both these teams are hopeful contenders in the wide-open Eastern Conference. The Knicks have climbed to the Eastern Conference favorites at +275 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Heat have slipped to the eighth-best odds at +1500 odds after a tough recent stretch.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Knicks enter as 7.5-point favorites and hold -310 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat hold +250 odds of winning outright with the game total set at O/U 236.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday night matchup.
Heat at Knicks preview
The Miami Heat enter with a 15-13 record on the season, and sit in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. They got out of the gates strong this year, but have lost six of their last seven games leading into tonight. Miami is 15-13 against the spread this season, and the under has hit in 15 of their 23 games.
Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell are questionable for today’s matchup, while Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, and Pelle Larson remain sidelined. Norman Powell headlines the production for Miami, averaging 24.1 points and 3.8 rebounds, while shooting 41.1% from beyond the three-point arc. Bam Adebayo continues to quietly produce, averaging 18.5 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has had a resurgent season, posting averages of 16.3 points and 4.8 rebounds, while Kel’el Ware has shown encouraging growth with his 11.9 points and 10.4 rebounds.
As a team, the Heat are scoring 120.0 points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Miami leads the league in pace, ranks 17th in offensive rating, 13th in field goal percentage, and seventh in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.3 points per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA. The Heat rank third in defensive rating, fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fourth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The New York Knicks sit in second place in the Eastern Conference with a 19-8 record on the season. They are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday, which snapped a seven-game winning streak- including the NBA Cup victory on Tuesday. This also marked just the second home loss of the season for New York. The Knicks are an NBA-best 18-10 against the spread this season, and the over has cashed in 15 of their 28 games.
Jalen Brunson continues to headline the production, averaging 28.4 points, 6.5 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game. Karl-Anthony Towns adds 22.4 points and 11.8 rebounds, while Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have each impressed at the wing positions. The Knicks have seen a spark since Josh Hart has been reintroduced to the starting lineup, going 9-2 in these matchups. Hart is averaging 12.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. Myles McBride and Landry Shamet remain sidelined with injuries.
The Knicks average 120.2 points per game, which is the fourth-best rate in the NBA. They rank 10th in the league in field goal percentage, fifth in three-point percentage, and third in offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 112.4 points per game against them, which is the fourth-best rate in the league. New York ranks 13th in defensive rating, eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 18th in opponents’ three-point percentage, while giving up the sixth-most perimeter shot attempts.
Heat at Knicks prediction, best Bet
The Miami Heat made some significant stylistic changes to their style of basketball ahead of this season. While the early results were promising, Miami has come back to earth in recent weeks, dropping six of its last seven games.
In contrast, the Knicks have a defined identity and plenty of chemistry from playing together over the past few seasons. They have been one of the hottest teams in basketball, winning 11 of their last 13. New York suffered a loss to the 76ers on Friday, but this was a spot where it ran out of gas on the second night of a back-to-back, and playing four games over the span of a week.
Both these teams last played on Friday, so there is no rest advantage in either direction. But the rest was timely for the Knicks, and they will look to defend their home court, which they have done at a 13-2 rate this season. Both these teams have high powered offenses that like to push the pace. My lean is certainly toward the over, but I am backing the Knicks to win and cover the 7.5-point spread.
This is the fourth matchup between these two teams this season, with the Heat winning two of the three matchups thus far. However, Miami has not looked like the same team of late. The Knicks have covered 10 of their last 12 games and have had no trouble pouring on points to put opponents away. Expect Jalen Brunson to shine as the best player on the floor and for the Knicks’ collection of high level perimeter defenders to match the Heat’s ability to push the tempo. New York will be eager to wash away the previous loss and capitalize on a struggling opponent.
