Life comes at us fast. There was a time not too long ago when it was Baltimore that had arguably the best quarterback in the league with a debilitating defense, running roughshod over the entire NFL. Well, the Ravens are 7-7, fighting for a playoff spot. Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley started three games for Baltimore and Jackson hasn’t looked like himself since returning from injury.
The new kids on the block, the New England Patriots, certainly have had the right stuff. New England rattled off 10 straight wins before losing to Buffalo in Week 15 after leading 21-0 in the first half. Drake Maye leads the league in completion percentage and is an MVP candidate. He is orchestrating an offense that is third in EPA per dropback. The running game hasn’t been great at 4.3 yards per carry, but the Patriots have scored 16 rushing touchdowns, with Maye accounting for four of those.
Their head coach, Mike Vrabel, placed an emphasis on improving the defense. With some free agent additions and excellent coaching, New England is allowing 4.1 yards per carry on the ground and the seven rushing touchdowns allowed are the fewest in the NFL. The pass defense has allowed 24 touchdowns, but the EPA per dropback is 12th-lowest. The Patriots’ defense doesn’t get much pressure on the quarterback, though, ranking 23rd, while the 29 sacks are seventh-fewest. The 14 takeaways are tied for the seventh-fewest as well.
Baltimore, unsurprisingly, is second in EPA per carry on offense. The Ravens are averaging 5.2 yards per carry and have scored 16 touchdowns. Lamar Jackson has only totaled 333 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, though. The 30.3 rushing yards per game are a career-low by a significant margin, as he’s often been in the 50 to 60 yard range. The passing game has been bad, posting the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback.
Defensively, Baltimore has the eighth-lowest EPA per carry, allowing 4.2 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns. Through the air, the unit has allowed 19 touchdowns and posted the 18th-highest EPA per dropback. The issue has been the lack of pressure, as the Ravens are 25th in pressure rate and the 22 sacks are tied for the second-fewest in the league.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (NE @ BAL)
TE Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens ($4,400)
Likely did not see a single target last week, but that’s more due to blowout than anything else. In the prior two contests, Likely garnered six targets in each. He’s playing around 50% to 60% of the snaps, almost the same as Mark Andrews. Andrews has more targets and red-zone opportunities, but Likely did go for 95 yards three weeks ago and scored a touchdown two weeks ago. New England has allowed the ninth-most FPTS to tight ends on average this season.
WR Mack Hollins, New England Patriots ($4,800)
Hollins leads all Patriots wide receivers with 610 snaps on the season. Last week, he received 79% of the snaps. As for targets, he has 56 on the season, second to Stefon Diggs and third on the team, as tight end Hunter Henry has 72 targets. Last week, though, Hollins garnered eight targets. There is uncertainty there and robust volume isn’t guaranteed, but Hollins will be out on the field.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots ($5,600)
For most of the season, Stevenson has out-snapped TreVeyon Henderson. Last week, Stevenson got 67% of the snaps while Henderson was at 48%. Henderson is the home-run hitter while Stevenson is more the grinder and pounder. Both backs received three targets and two red-zone opportunities last week. Henderson did rush 14 times for 148 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15, so the ownership will likely be very high. What if Henderson rushes 13 times for 55 yards, yet it’s Stevenson who scores two touchdowns?
