The AFC playoff race got a whole lot more interesting last week. Buffalo’s win over the New England Patriots suddenly put the AFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference in doubt. The Bills likely need to win out for a chance at a bye week and home-field advantage, and that quest starts with a Week 16 matchup with the Cleveland Browns.
The Bills are 10.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re angling for a Browns upset, they’re priced at +470 on the moneyline. The game’s total is set at 41.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Bills vs. Browns game.
Bills vs. Browns prediction, preview
Last week’s comeback win over the Patriots was a Bills special. Timely defensive plays and an unstoppably clutch Josh Allen delivered a victory that keeps their hopes of another AFC East title alive. If they hope to steal that crown, they’ll need New England to take a loss while winning out. Crazier things have happened. Allen continuing to play at this level would go a long way.
Cleveland will hope to play the spoiler in another lost season. Outside of Myles Garrett chasing the single-season sack record, there’s little to enjoy about the Browns. Currently, they are on their third starting quarterback of the season, and he’s by far their most controversial. Shedeur Sanders certainly has the most upside of the three they’ve played, but he’s also the most mistake-prone. At least it makes them more watchable.
The deciding factor here is the defense. Buffalo has allowed the NFL’s fewest opponent passing yards this season, and Cleveland is not far behind at third. The Bills’ offense is on a roll, but the Browns’ defense at home is a tough test.
While Buffalo’s pass defense is top-notch, its rush coverage has struggled — as has Cleveland’s offense. Can Shedeur and Co. get loose against this Bills defense? Or will they get blanketed in the cold?
Bills vs. Browns pick, best bet
This game screams big bundle of ugly. Cleveland’s defense has the formula to make life hard on Josh Allen, with a stellar pass rush and run game. Buffalo should pull out the win, but it won’t be pretty. The Browns’ offense creates as much good as bad. The offenses should reflect the weather in Cleveland tomorrow: gross.
