Week 16 of the NFL regular season has arrived, bringing a loaded slate of games on Sunday. In the afternoon window, it’s a battle between birds as the 5-9 Atlanta Falcons travel to the desert to take on the 3-11 Arizona Cardinals. Sure, neither team has a standout record as their respective seasons slipped away weeks ago, but there’s still betting value here as well as entertainment value for fans who tune in. Which side comes out on top here?
Read on for a Falcons vs. Cardinals prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 16 contest.
Falcons vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
The Falcons are still weathering the storm with Kirk Cousins at quarterback following the season-ending injury to Michael Penix Jr. several weeks ago, and while the results haven’t been too pretty, the team did manage to play spoiler last game. A 29-28 win over the Buccaneers saw the veteran throw for 373 yards and three touchdowns, with 11 passes heading in Kyle Pitts’ direction for 166 yards and all three scores. A repeat of that remains quite unlikely, but there is an encouraging sign for Atlanta as wideout Drake London is expected to return after missing Week 12 onward with a PCL issue. That’s a big boost for a team that already has Bijan Robinson but averages only 20.1 points per game (26th), though the 340.4 yards per contest fall 14th. The weak point is converting on third down with just a 31.93% conversion rate though, third-worst in the league. Defensively, the Falcons aren’t nearly what they were at the start of the season, allowing an average of 24.4 points (22nd) and 323.6 yards (14th). While quite solid against the pass at eighth in passing yards given up per game, they’re 24th in rushing yards allowed with 127.9 per contest. Splash plays are fairly frequent though, with the third-best sack percentage and 1.2 takeaways per outing.
The Cardinals see a similar struggle with their own backup quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, along with a poor defense. Arizona’s last win came on November 3 over the Cowboys, and the team just got blown out 40-20 by an inconsistent Texans offense last week. The game plan is simple, throwing 40+ times per contest to try and play catch-up after falling behind early. It’s not working for wins in anything other than fantasy football as the Cardinals average 21.6 points (21st) and 333.4 yards (17th), even despite converting third downs at the seventh-best rate. Brissett has played well overall, and his connection with Trey McBride is undeniable as the tight end posts possibly one of the best seasons of all time at the position with 105 catches for 1,071 yards and 10 touchdowns… with three games to go. With other targets like wideouts Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona posts 238.4 passing yards per game, seventh-most, but lacks any semblance of a rushing attack and will turn to Michael Carter as the starter with Bam Knight out. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals give up 27.7 points per game (27th) and 351.1 yards (26th). They fall 22nd in run defense and 21st against the pass, and while they average 1.2 takeaways, a sack rate ranked 27th doesn’t do much to pressure opposing quarterbacks.
Falcons vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Falcons are three-point favorites on the road with -155 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Cardinals are listed at +130to win outright with a game total of 48.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 72% of straight bets favor Atlanta while 64% are on the team to cover. On the total, 58% of the wagers favor the over.
This is a game that may not have a standout team, but it could truly go either way. Perhaps the biggest question to answer is how London looks in his first action in over a month — if he looks healthy, the Falcons’ offense becomes all that more dynamic; if not, they’ll force the ball to Pitts and Robinson since there’s a notable lack of other options who can reliably create plays with the ball in their hands. Even if the Atlanta attack seems a bit predicable, the Cardinals may not be able to stop it. They don’t excel against either the run or the pass, and there’s little threat to Cousins in the pocket despite his physical limitations to escape and extend plays.
Conversely, the Falcons don’t have a great defense either but could potentially keep this game close and limit Brissett’s gunslinging simply by virtue of game script. As long as Arizona doesn’t fall behind big as seen in recent weeks, the run game may see additional work against a poor run-stopping unit and lead to a more balanced attack. However, the Cardinals could just keep feeding their top targets to the glee of fantasy managers around the country. It’s hard to tell.
Ultimately, this probably winds up a close contest between offenses with theoretical upside as they face soft defenses which give up plenty of points. Arizona is 9-5 on the over while Atlanta is 7-6-1, so expect some sloppy football and plenty of points. I’m leaning toward the over here even at 48.5 points.
