Week 16 got off to an amazingly dramatic (and controversial) start on Thursday Night Football, and next up is a pair of great Saturday divisional contests. The Eagles visit the Commanders in the first matchup of the day, and Washington will look to get a second straight win after beating the Giants last week. Running backs Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr. are sharing time in the Commanders’ backfield, but can either one be in your fantasy football plans for the week?
In this post, we’ll examine if you should start or sit Jacory Croskey-Merritt or Chris Rodriguez Jr. by looking at how the backfield rotation has shaken out and breaking down the matchup with the Eagles.
The Matchup
The Eagles have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, giving up 14 running back touchdowns and an average of 97.2 rushing yards and 39.3 receiving yards to the position per week.
Last week, they held the Raiders in check, but Omarion Hampton found the end zone against them in Week 14, while both D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai ran wild against Philadelphia on Black Friday in Week 13. There could definitely be some space to operate for the Commanders’ running backs, although it definitely isn’t an easy matchup.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Fantasy Outlook
Last week, Rodriguez was sidelined by a groin injury, leaving Jeremy McNichols and Jacory Croskey-Merritt to handle the workload. Before his injury, Rodriguez played over 40% of the snaps in three straight weeks and scored over nine fantasy points in three of his previous five games. He found the end zone against the Broncos and Seahawks in home games, resulting in 10.1 and 12.5 fantasy points, respectively.
Rodriguez doesn’t have an especially high ceiling since he doesn’t usually catch any passes, but he does have touchdown-dependent upside against the Eagles. He was getting most of the early-down work before his injury, and he’ll likely get most of the carries this week again, even though he may not end up with the biggest fantasy total.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Fantasy Outlook
While he has been working as a complement to Rodriguez the last few weeks, “Bill” had a big showing in Week 15, producing 15.6 fantasy points by taking 18 carries for 96 yards and a touchdown. He was not targeted in the passing game, but he was productive as a down-hill runner and managed to get back in the end zone for the first time since Week 5.
Croskey-Merritt showed a higher ceiling than Rodriguez earlier in the year, as well, posting 31 fantasy points in the Commanders’ road win over the Chargers (which seems about 100 years ago). The rookie faded, though, as the season went on and fell behind both Rodriguez and McNichols for work until re-emerging last week.
While he may not have the biggest workload in the backfield, he does have the highest ceiling. Still, his lack of PPR work does give him a very low-floor, as you can see from the fact that he had 5.1 fantasy points or fewer in seven straight games before last week’s breakthrough against the Giants.
The Bottom Line
Since neither of these two running backs are involved as pass-catchers, they’re both high-risk plays in all formats. If either gets into the end zone they do have upside, though, and can be FLEX considerations because of that possibility. Rodriguez is likely to get most of the work, but Croskey-Merritt has a higher ceiling, so if you have both as options and have to pick one, I’d lean slightly towards Bill. Neither is an option you can play with confidence, though.
The two Saturday games are part of a separate slate of DFS contests on DraftKings, headlined by the NFL $1.2M Saturday Special [$300K to 1st] (Sat). With such a small pool of four teams, both of these backs deserve consideration. Again, I’d lean towards Croskey-Merritt at his salary of $5,200 instead of paying up for Rodriguez at $5,400. Which back has value, though, will really just boil down to which one gets into the end zone.
