In 2024-25, Sevilla had a disaster season, surviving relegation after Leganés finished just one point behind it. Thankfully, the seven-time Europa League winners shouldn’t have to worry about that in 2025-26, as after 16 weeks, Los Nervionenses are ninth, five points clear of the relegation zone.
Sevilla isn’t likely to cut into that deficit this afternoon, though, as it’ll have to travel to the Bernabéu for a date with Real Madrid. The match will begin at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local).
Los Blancos are -475 favorites to win and +600 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook. Los Nervionenses are +1200 on the Moneyline.
Real Madrid vs. Sevilla prediction, pick
Real Madrid is exactly where it would be expected to be, while Sevilla has been a positive surprise this season given its 2024-25 result. Though Los Blancos have cooled off somewhat after a ridiculous start to the season in which they won 12 of their first 13 games, picking up four wins, three draws, and three defeats from their last four matches to reportedly put Xabi Alonso’s job in jeopardy, four points behind Barcelona in La Liga isn’t a terrible place to be. Real Madrid’s recent match-to-match inconsistency has been the story of Los Nervionenses’ entire season: they have not won, drawn, or lost more than twice consecutively this entire season.
All that needs to be said about Los Blancos is that they have Kylian Mbappé, who has scored six more goals than anyone else in the Spanish top flight, and with Vinicius Júnior also recording 10 goal contributions in the league so far, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Real Madrid has scored more goals than any other club besides Barcelona. Los Blancos have had plenty of roster questions still — Trent Alexander-Arnold’s Madrid career hasn’t gotten off to a great start, and former starter Rodrygo has just one goal — but the talent is undeniable. Real Madrid’s back line is far from perfect, especially with Éder Militão set to miss more time with another injury, but it has only allowed 16 goals, tied for the second-fewest in La Liga. Thibaut Courtois, though perhaps a little past his prime, still ranks fourth in clean sheet percentage, and the team as a whole ranks fourth in tackle in win percentage, second in tackles plus interceptions, and second in opponent shots on target per 90 minutes.
While Los Blancos’ attack is heavily dependent on Mbappé, Sevilla ranks sixth in La Liga with 24 goals despite no individual player netting more than thrice. Los Nervionenses have had an extremely egalitarian approach, as 13 different players have scored at least once. Defensively, though, Sevilla has struggled, allowing the fifth-most goals in La Liga and ranking second-to-last in interceptions, even though it has won the most tackles. It has also allowed the most non-penalty expected goals per shot, so while Odysseas Vlachodimos has somewhat struggled between the sticks, making just 74.5% of his possible save opportunities, it hasn’t entirely been his fault. In fact, Los Nervionenses have actually allowed fewer goals than expected based on the shot quality they’ve given up.
They just can’t expect to get away with a sloppy defensive performance against a player as clinical as Mbappé, who ranks fourth in La Liga in goals minus expected goals. The Frenchman is in ridiculous form, having scored 10 goals in his last eight appearances for club and country. He’s only failed to score in two La Liga matches at the Bernabéu. It’s hard to imagine him not putting at least one past Vlachodimos tonight.
