There are 10 games of NBA action tipping off across tonight’s Saturday slate. In the 7:00 p.m. EST window, the Dallas Mavericks will travel to face the Philadelphia 76ers.
This will mark the second night of a back-to-back for the Sixers after a thrilling win over the Knicks last night. The Mavericks last played on Thursday, but are coming off back-to-back overtime matchups against the Jazz and Pistons.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the 76ers enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites and hold -115 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mavericks hold -105 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 225.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Saturday night matchup.
Mavericks at 76ers Prediction, Preview
Philadelphia enters with a 15-11 record on the season and has won five of its last seven. This is a tough spot on the second night of a back-to-back following the win over the Knicks, with Paul George ruled out and Joel Embiid listed as doubtful. Kelly Oubre Jr. and Trendon Watford also remain sidelined. The Sixers have gone 16-10 against the spread this season with the under cashing in 14 of their 26 games.
Philadelphia ranks 16th in the league in scoring at 116.8 points per game. They rank 25th in team field goal percentage, but 12th in three-point percentage while ranking 13th in three-point volume. Defensively, the Sixers are allowing 115.5 points per game, which ranks 13th in the league. They are sixth in opponent field goal percentage allowed, seventh in opponent three-point percentage allowed, and 12th in defensive rating.
Tyrese Maxey has stepped into center stage as the face of the franchise for the Sixers this year and delivered. Leading the league at 39.8 minutes per contest, Maxey is averaging 31.8 points, 7.3 assists and 4.6 rebounds while shooting 39.6% from beyond the three-point arc. VJ Edgecombe has looked like his long-term backcourt mate and is pitching in 15.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain also provide a nice pop of scoring at the guard spots. Center Andre Drummond is in the midst of a resurgent season and will step in as the starter given the injuries. The former All-Star is averaging 7.5 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 41.2% from beyond the three-point arc this season.
The Dallas Mavericks enter with an 11-17 record on the season, but have shown some improvement in recent weeks. They have won six of their last eight games, with the roster beginning to get healthier and find its collective stride. Anthony Davis is listed as probable tonight with an illness, while Klay Thompson is questionable with knee soreness. Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and Dante Exum remain sidelined with their long-term injuries. Dallas is 14-14 against the spread this season, and the under has cashed in 16 of their 28 games.
The Mavericks lean on a defensive style of basketball. They are averaging 113.0 points per game, which is the 25th-best rate in the NBA, and Dallas ranks 28th in offensive rating, 21st in field goal percentage, and 28th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Mavericks rank 16th in opponent points per game by allowing 116.7 per game. They rank sixth in defensive rating, eighth in opponent field goal percentage, and are limiting teams to the worst three-point percentage in the league.
Anthony Davis has suited up for 12 games this season, posting averages of 19.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. First overall pick Cooper Flagg has been as advertised, tallying 18.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. Undrafted rookie Ryan Nembhard has been a revelation in recent games, filling in as the team’s primary point guard. Over his past nine games as a starter, Nembhard is averaging 12.1 points and 7.1 assists, while shooting 54.8% from beyond the three-point arc. P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, Max Christie and Daniel Gafford round out most of their notable depth.
Mavericks at 76ers Pick, Best Bet
This is a contrast of styles, with the pace of the game set to have a massive impact on its outcome. The Mavericks will not be able to run with the Sixers if the latter are able to consistently get out in transition and push the tempo. But if Dallas can muck things up and make this a defensive battle, Philadelphia will struggle.
On the second half of a back-to-back and without Joel Embiid and Paul George, I am backing the latter to occur. Rebounding will especially be a concern for the Sixers. Despite finding a way to get the win, Philadelphia was out-rebounded 57-36 by the Knicks last night. The Sixers rank 10th in rebounds per game and 24th in opponent rebounds allowed.
This will be a problem against a loaded Mavericks front court. While the metrics are not as impressive as you would expect, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, and P.J. Washington are each capable of pulling in double-digit boards on any given night. Expect the Mavericks to lean on larger lineups throughout with this in mind.
Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe will do their best to will this Sixers team to a win, but there is a clearer pathway to the Mavericks getting the result. Expect Dallas to dominate the rebounds and produce additional possessions. Ryan Nembhard’s stretch of strong play has further unlocked the offense. Expect some tired legs to show up for Philadelphia, and for the Mavericks to have a bit more gas in the tank to find a way to get the win.
