There are some great games on the NFL Week 16 slate as the regular season enters its second half. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 16.
NFL Week 16 Best Bets
Jaguars +3.5 at Broncos
The Jaguars are taking on the Broncos in a battle of teams clinging to slim divisional leads. The Broncos are on fire, having won 11 straight games. However, since 1990, teams on 11+ game winning streaks are 14-36-2 ATS. This is the top of the market on a Denver team that has struggled to beat teams by margin all season. During this 11 game winning streak, nine have come by one possession and six of them have come by three points or fewer. The Jaguars are playing their best football of the season at the moment, having won five straight. Despite the tough road trip to Denver, the Jaguars are built to keep this game close. They defend the run well and run the ball efficiently, the key to keeping games close on the road against good team. The Jacksonville defense has been superb this season, now ranking higher than the Broncos in defensive EPA/play. They should be able to contain Bo Nix, run the ball well and keep the game within a field goal.
Six-Point Teaser: Chargers +7.5 & Giants +8.5
The Chargers are taking on the Cowboys in an important game for Los Angeles. The Chargers face the Broncos in the regular season finale, meaning they still have a chance to win the AFC West. They can also get close to locking up a playoff spot this week with a win. This should be an all-out effort agianst a team with one of the best defenses in the NFL. Since Week 10, the Chargers rank third in the NFL in defensive EPA/play. They have the players to contain the explosive Dallas offense and make this a lower-scoring game. The offense has been the issues for the Chargers, but against a poor Dallas defense, Justin Hebert should be able to create enough explosive plays to make this game close, with a great chance to win outright.
The Giants are facing the Vikings at home on Sunday. The Vikings have bounced back from a rough patch to win two straight games, but those wins came against two of the worst defenses in the league. J.J. McCarthy moved it well against the Cowboys and Commanders, but those defenses rank 30th and 31st in defensive EPA/play this season. The Giants don’t have a great defensive unit either, but they can generate a much better pass rush than those teams. The Giants rank 11th in the NFL in pass rush win rate, and should get pressure on McCarthy. The Giants move the ball well enough to keep it close against Minnesota. Since Week 10, the Giants rank ninth in the NFL in offensive EPA/play, while the Vikings rank 28th. At home, New York should be able to keep this within a score.
Ravens -3 vs. Patriots
The Patriots have been one of the best teams in the league this season, but last week was very telling for the Patriots. It was the first time that Drake Maye had to face an elite team late in the season with a playoff atmosphere. The Bills desperately needed that win and when everything was on the line, Josh Allen made the plays that Drake Maye could not. This is going to be a similar game, but this time Drake Maye is going on the road, rather than being at home. The Patriots will be facing a team with a lot of playoff experience, on the road, with that team desperate for a win to stay in the playoff hunt. In Weeks 15-18 of the regular season, Lamar Jackson has never lost a regular season start. Between Jackson and Derrick Henry, they will make the plays needed to win this game. The Baltimore defense will also stand up. Since Week 5, they rank 5th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play. The Ravens should be able to win this game by at least a field goal.
