The Ole Miss Rebels host the Tulane Green Wave on Saturday, December 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats, and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Ole Miss -17.5 (-108) | Tulane +17.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Ole Miss -1000 | Tulane +650
Total: 57.5 (Over -108 / Under -112)
Betting Splits for Ole Miss vs. Tulane
- Spread splits: 63% of bets / 65% of handle on Ole Miss -17.5
- Moneyline splits: 83% of bets / 48% of handle on Ole Miss -1000
- Total splits: 64% of bets / 77% of handle on Over 57.5
The public is heavily on Ole Miss to win, but the bigger money is leaning to Tulane on the Moneyline, while spread and total action points to Ole Miss covering and a higher-scoring game.
Stats
- Ole Miss ATS: 7-5 (avg cover margin: 3.42) in 12 games
- Tulane ATS: 7-6 (avg cover margin: -0.81) in 13 games
- Ole Miss offense: 0.314 PPA, 0.482 success rate, 1.303 explosiveness
- Tulane offense: 0.221 PPA, 0.451 success rate, 1.191 explosiveness
- Ole Miss defense: 0.101 PPA allowed, 0.384 success rate allowed, 0.161 havoc
- Tulane defense: 0.133 PPA allowed, 0.439 success rate allowed, 0.170 havoc
- First downs: Ole Miss 306 | Tulane 287
Key Stats to Know
- Efficiency edge: Ole Miss has the stronger overall profile on a per-play basis (0.314 offensive PPA vs. Tulane 0.221) and also grades better defensively by PPA allowed (0.101 vs. 0.133).
- Passing-down leverage: Ole Miss has a big spike on passing downs (0.599 PPA), and Tulane’s defense is notably more vulnerable on passing downs (0.314 PPA allowed) than on standard downs (0.059 PPA allowed).
- Finishing drives: Ole Miss creates more points per opportunity (4.67) than Tulane (3.99), which matters in a game priced for Ole Miss to separate.
How to Bet Ole Miss vs. Tulane
- Spread vs. market gap: The spread is large at Ole Miss -17.5, but Ole Miss has been a positive ATS team (7-5) with a positive average cover margin, supporting the idea that they can still clear margin in the right matchup.
- Why Over is drawing money: The Over 57.5 owns 77% of handle, and Ole Miss’ offensive explosiveness (1.303) plus strong points per opportunity (4.67) fit a game script where Ole Miss scores efficiently even if Tulane is playing from behind.
- Moneyline split signal: Despite 83% of tickets on Ole Miss -1000, Tulane holds 52% of Moneyline handle at +650. That’s not enough to make Tulane our upset call, but it is a reminder that laying a huge Moneyline price is often a poor risk-reward proposition.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
- Kewan Lacy – First TD Scorer (+260): The top-listed option in the first TD market for this matchup, and a natural fit if you’re expecting Ole Miss to start fast.
- Kewan Lacy – 1st Ole Miss TD Scorer (+190): A narrower way to attack the same “Ole Miss scores first” script with shorter odds than the full first TD market.
- Trinidad Chambliss – First TD Scorer (+700): A longer price relative to Lacy that still correlates with an Ole Miss offense that can create quick-strike scores.
Popular Parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: Ole Miss 44, Tulane 24
Moneyline: Ole Miss
Spread: Ole Miss -17.5
Total: Over 57.5
After reviewing the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team believes Ole Miss’ efficiency and finishing ability create separation, while the market’s heavy over handle aligns with a game script where Ole Miss drives the scoring environment. The one caution is the moneyline handle leaning Tulane at +650, which is why we prefer the spread/total over laying -1000.