After a controversial selection process, #10 Miami punched its first-ever ticket to the College Football Playoff. Awaiting the Hurricanes will be a showdown in SEC country vs. #7 Texas A&M. The Aggies put together one of the best seasons in program history en route to a 11-1 record. Now, these two teams will meet at College Station for the right to play in the Cotton Bowl.
Which side will come out on top in this do-or-die CFP matchup? Texas A&M enters Saturday’s contest as three-point favorites (-118) over Miami, with the over/under set at 47.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Aggies are favored at -155 on the moneyline.
Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction, preview
It’s been a successful, albeit challenging, year for Miami. The U made an early statement with a Week 1 win over Notre Dame. That victory over the Irish was enough to earn a postseason berth despite losses to Louisville and SMU. The Hurricanes are a well-rounded group, especially in the trenches. Potential NFL first-rounder Francis Mauigoa leads one of the nation’s top offensive lines. Their protection is crucial for quarterback Carson Beck. The Georgia transfer has enjoyed a successful season in Coral Gables. Through 12 games, he’s thrown for 3,072 yards and 25 touchdowns. In addition, he notched an ACC-leading 75% completion percentage.
If there’s one glaring weakness for Beck, it’s a penchant for turnovers. Look no further than his four-interception disaster in October vs. Louisville. If the senior is erratic once again, Miami is likely doomed. Keep in mind, the Hurricanes have been middling at best on the ground. The duo of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown have combined for 1,074 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. On the flip side, Texas A&M’s defense is allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in the SEC. However, the Aggies have only snagged three interceptions, last in the conference.
TAMU, while respectable on defense, has been carried by its offense. It all starts under center with breakout star Marcel Reed. The dual-threat quarterback has gained 2,932 passing yards, 466 rushing yards and 31 total touchdowns this season. He’s formed a strong connection with wideouts Mario Craver and Kevin Concepcion. The latter of the two leads the SEC with nine receiving touchdowns.
On the ground, the Aggies are averaging 192.7 rushing yards per game, second-best in the conference. However, Miami has allowed a paltry 2.9 yards per carry, behind only Pittsburgh amongst ACC schools. Edge Rueben Bain Jr. leads one of the nation’s most formidable defensive lines. An improved Canes secondary has been difficult on opposing passers, as well. Miami has allowed more than 250 passing yards in just three of their 12 games this season.
Miami vs. Texas A&M pick, best bet
If Beck avoids throwing interceptions against A&M, this could be a terrific afternoon for the visitors. However, it’s worth mentioning that Miami’s strength of schedule is 45th in college football. In comparison, the Aggies ranked 18th. Beating up on ACC opponents is a whole different ballgame compared to the SEC. The Hurricanes have a high ceiling, but also a very low floor. That inconsistency is a scary proposition heading into a road game at Kyle Field. In what should be a tightly fought contest, I’ll back TAMU at home.
