Kicking off in the 12 vs. 5 seed of the College Football Playoff bracket, the James Madison Dukes will travel to face the Oregon Ducks. This matchup will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET, taking place at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.
Oregon enters as a 20.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. JMU holds +1,000 odds of pulling off the outright upset with the total set at O/U 45.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best same game parlay for this College Football Playoff matchup.
James Madison vs. Oregon prediction, preview
James Madison Preview
In just their fourth year competing at the FBS level, James Madison has secured their first College Football Playoff Appearance. They finished the year with a 12-1 overall record and finished the season on an 11-game winning streak. This includes beating Troy in the Sun Belt Championship, with the lone loss coming against Louisville back in Week 2.
They are a difficult team to break down the outlook for because of the leap in competition. JMU’s loss to Louisville was the only team they were not favorites against this season, and they went 8-5 against the spread. Bob Chesney has not allowed the program to miss a beat following Curt Cignetti’s leap to the Indiana job.
The level of competition must be acknowledged, but JMU finished the year ranked 10th among D1 teams in both points tallied and points allowed. The Dukes have leaned on a run-first approach all season, rushing on 61.6% of their offensive plays. Oregon’s defense has been vulnerable against the run, so if JMU can play its style of football, there is a pathway to keeping this game competitive.
Oregon Preview
The Oregon Ducks are legitimate National Championship threats. They went 11-1 on the season, with their lone loss coming against Indiana. Oregon closed the season in dominant fashion, winning its final six games by an average margin of 19.7 points per game. They went 8-4 against the spread on the season and 6-2 as double-digit favorites.
Dan Lanning is on the shortlist for best coaches in all of college football and has the talent to maximize. The Ducks finished the season ranked ninth in points scored and eighth in points allowed per game. Oregon is also active in the running game, leading the country in EPA per play and success rate on rush attempts. Dante Moore has had some ups and downs at the quarterback spot, but overall has been extremely impressive.
James Madison vs. Oregon Same Game Parlay
This is a game where I expect the impact of the rushing attack to have a major impact on the result. Oregon leans on a variety of ball carriers in the flow of their offense, but this is a matchup that Jordon Davison should have the most success. Standing 6-feet tall and weighing 236 pounds, Davison is built strong and not afraid to put this on display. He carries the ball 88 times this season for 535 yards and a team-high 13 rushing touchdowns.
Oregon’s rushing game is sometimes a battle of attrition. They are content wearing an opponents down before the pathway is established for a massive gain and game-changing touchdown. This is how I foresee things playing out with JMU not accustomed to facing this level of size and physicality. 444 of Davison’s rushing yards came over the final seven games, and he became the clear goal-line back as the season progressed. He eclipsed 100+ yards twice final six weeks. Look for him to break free for at least one long gain as the game progresses and see plenty of chances to score around the goal line throughout.
To this same point, I like Oregon’s chances of putting points on the board and scoring over the 33.5 game total. The Ducks have averaged 39.2 points per game on the season, and scored over 33 points in seven of their 12 games this year. While JMU has limited opponents to an average of just 15.8 points per game, this will be a caliber of talent they are not accustomed to seeing. They have not given up more than 27 points in a game this season, but they also have not faced a team of Oregon’s caliber.
Expect the Ducks’ size and physicality to be a real factor in this game. Oregon just needs one touchdown a quarter and an additional field goal in each half to eclipse this number. Count on the Ducks to come out flying and for Dan Lanning to not let his foot off the gas throughout.
With this said, I am backing Alonza Barnett II to throw at least one touchdown in the matchup. He threw for 21 across his 13 games played this season, throwing at least one in 11 of these. Even if it is with the game out of reach, don’t expect James Madison to roll over and continue attempting to score until the very end. Oregon only held a team without a touchdown in one game this season, and allowed an average of one passing touchdown per game. Barnett II has impressed as the season has progressed, and count on him to do everything in his power to punch in at least one score to keep this game competitive.
