The first round of the College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday night and continues into Saturday. These are my top targets and values for the featured Saturday slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss vs. Tulane, $8,200
Trinidad Chambliss has been one of the best stories in college football this season. He transferred from Ferris State to Ole Miss and started the season as the backup to Austin Simmons. However, after an injury to Simmons, Chambliss took over the offense and never let it go. These two teams faced off in the regular season, and Chambliss threw for over 300 yards and two scores while also rushing for over 100 yards. It should be another dominant performance from Chambliss against a Tulane defense that ranks 110th in the nation in success rate.
Value
Carson Beck, Miami vs. Texas A&M, $7,200
Carson Beck is one of the cheapest starting quarterbacks in this contest, even though he is the most experienced quarterback among these six teams. He has played in plenty of big games in his career and should be ready for this massive CFP showdown. Texas A&M’s defense was mostly strong all season, but it struggled against the best offenses on its schedule. Notre Dame and Arkansas both scored 40 points against this defense, while South Carolina scored 30 points in one half and Texas scored 27 in the team’s regular season finale. This isn’t an unbeatable defense, and Beck should move the ball through the air with this offense that ranks tenth in the nation in EPA/dropback.
Running Back
Stud
Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss vs. Tulane, $7,800
Kewan Lacy was one of the best running backs in America this season. He ranked ninth in the nation in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns during the regular season. That includes the two touchdowns that he scored in the initial matchup against Tulane. Tulane ranks 79th nationally in defensive EPA/rush and 100th in defensive rushing success rate. Ole Miss should feed Lacy the entire game and let him dominate. They are also expected to win this game by a wide margin, which means a lot of the second half could be spent giving it to Lacy over and over again, allowing him to rack up huge numbers.
Value
Rueben Owens II, Texas A&M vs. Miami, $4,800
Texas A&M’s starting running back, Le’Veon Moss, is questionable for this game. Given the fact that it’s a playoff game, there is a good chance that Moss gives it a go. However, there is also a good chance that he is on a snap count or gets reinjured during the game. That would turn the bulk of the carries over to Rueben Owens. Owens was the team’s leading rusher this season, due to Moss missing a chunk of time with an injury. He stepped up and performed whenever Texas A&M needed him. Whether Moss plays in this game or not, the Aggies will need Owens to help carry the load. The Miami defense is top-20 against the pass, but ranks 77th in the nation in defensive EPA/rush. Owens should break some long runs and even find the end zone in this game.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon vs. JMU, $6,200
Kenyon Sadiq is a superstar tight end for the Ducks. He led Oregon in receptions and receiving touchdowns this season. Over his final five games of the season, he had five touchdowns and went over 70 receiving yards in three games. James Madison has a great defense and will make things tricky for Oregon in this game. When in doubt, Dante Moore should look to his big tight end. Sadiq can rack up the receptions on chunk plays, but also has the athleticism to take those short receptions and turn them into big plays.
Value
Harrison Wallace III, Ole Miss vs. Tulane, $5,200
Harrison Wallace III was the top receiver for Ole Miss this season, finishing the regular season with over 700 yards through the air. Wallace ended the season strongly, averaging over 75 receiving yards per game over his final three games. He also scored a touchdown in the season finale against Mississippi State. This Tulane defense is vulnerable at the back end, and Trinidad Chambliss should look to hit a couple of deep shots to his top target in this game.
Flex/Superflex
You can use any of the other names I listed in the above categories for the flex or superflex positions. However, here are a few more names, just in case.
Stud
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M vs. Miami, $7,900
Marcel Reed had a superb season for Texas A&M. He finished 15th in the nation in both passing touchdowns and QBR. He is also a dangerous fantasy player because of his ability to use his legs, along with his arm. Reed accounted for 31 total touchdowns between the pass game and the run game. Reed tends to use his legs more against elite defensive lines, like that of Miami. Against teams that can’t get pressure, he is happy to sit in the pocket and be a passer. However, against teams that can get pressure, he likes to take off and run. For example, he rushed for 108 yards and two scores against LSU, and for 71 yards against Texas, arguably the best defensive line he has faced this season. This should be a heavy rush game for Reed, which will only make him more valuable in DFS for this contest.
Value
KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M vs. Miami, $6,000
When Marcel Reed is throwing the football, KC Concepcion is his top target. Concepcion and Mario Craver are one of the best WR duos in the nation, but it’s the former that leads the Aggies in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns on the season. Concepcion also finished the season strong, leading the team in receiving in each of its final three games against FBS opponents. Marcel Reed should look to his favorite target early and often with the pressure of a CFP game on his shoulders.
