On the same day that one already-eliminated team lost its top wide receiver (an early first-round pick in the 2022 Draft) to a knee injury, another already-eliminated team got a top wide receiver (an early first-round pick in the 2022 Draft) back from a knee injury. It seemed conceivable that the Atlanta Falcons would shut Drake London down for the season just like the New York Jets did earlier today with Garrett Wilson, but despite being listed as questionable with a PCL injury, London is expected to suit up for the first time since November 16 when the Falcons take on the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon.
Right before going down with his injury, London had been in exceptional form. He missed the team’s Week 8 loss to the Miami Dolphins with a hip injury, but in the six games he played between Week 4 and Week 11, he topped 100 yards in five different games, accumulating 651 yards and six scores (27.0 FPTS per game). Its not like he was blessed with great quarterback play — Michael Penix Jr. completed just 61.0% of his passes for 1,377 yards across that span — so it was just a matter of dominance on London’s part. It’s unclear just how many snaps he’ll play or how he’ll look in those snaps, and it’s hard to glean much from the few practice clips that have been released, but a sub-100% London is still a fantasy asset. It’s unclear how severe his strain was, but four weeks would be on the longer end of the recovery timeline for a Grade 1 injury and an extremely quick recovery for a Grade 2 injury.
London should be fine, since his appeal has never been about athleticism as much as his large frame and sure hands. Even in his best season, he’s never generated more than 2.7 yards of average separation, a below-median mark, so he should still be effective even if he’s not able to pull away from cornerbacks much. He’s predominantly a possession receiver whose average target is the shallowest of Atlanta’s three primary wideouts, so he should benefit from Kirk Cousins now being at quarterback, since Cousins has been better than Penix on throws made between zero and nine yards beyond the line of scrimmage, where London has received 54.7% of his targets. Plus, London’s athletic limitations require comparatively more accurate throws, and Cousins’ bad throw rate is nearly 10 percentage points lower than Penix’s.
Arizona is a fairly friendly opponent for London to make his return against. Though the Cardinals have been average against opposing wideouts, ranking 17th in FPTS allowed, they’ve allowed 230 or more receiving yards in three of their past four games and lost 11 of their last 12. They will also be missing defensive backs Darren Hall, Max Melton, and Jalen Thompson, with Thompson — the 32nd-best of 96 qualified coverage safeties — the biggest loss. Second-round pick Will Johnson, who’s likely to receive the primary London assignment, has cooled down after a hot start to his career, allowing 132 yards and three touchdowns across the last two weeks alone. Plus, Arizona operates almost exclusively in zone coverage, and London has been the league’s third-highest graded wideout against zone.
