The No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners in the first-round of the College Football Playoff. The game kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET in Norman, Oklahoma.
The Sooners are listed as 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 40.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best same game parlay for this College Football Playoff matchup.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction, preview
Alabama Preview
It has been an up-and-down season for Alabama en route to the College Football Playoff. After an opening week loss to Florida State, Kalen DeBoer was firmly on the hot seat. However, Alabama then went through a stretch in the middle of the season where it beat Georgia, Vanderbilt, LSU, Missouri and Tennessee, and looked like one of the best teams in the country. The Tide then limped down the stretch, losing to Oklahoma, narrowly beating Auburn, then getting blown out by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Alabama has had essential time to get healthy and reset ahead of this playoff game. If the Alabama team from the middle of the season, with one of the best passing attacks in the nation, comes to play, it has a great chance to move on to the next round. However, if the team from the final couple of weeks of the season shows up in Norman, it could really struggle to move the ball.
Oklahoma Preview
Oklahoma has also had quite the rollercoaster of a season. After the first month, the Sooners were one of the top-ranked teams in the country, having just beaten Michigan in non-conference play, and John Mateer was the Heisman favorite. However, an injury to Mateer put their entire season in jeopardy. He came back sooner than expected, but never quite looked the same. Oklahoma lost to Texas and was scraping by against inferior competition. However, on the back of their elite defense, the Sooners just kept finding ways to win. Oklahoma has a good enough defense to compete with any team in the country. However, its offense is also inconsistent enough that it could lose to any team any given week if just one or two things go wrong.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Same Game Parlay
My best same game parlay for this game is Alabama on the moneyline, parlayed with the first-half over 20.5 points. The Crimson Tide are short underdogs, but I’ll back them to win the game outright. In the first matchup between these teams, Alabama dominated the game, but couldn’t stop turning the ball over. Ty Simpson threw an awful pick-six and the Tide fumbled a punt return, which set up a short field for the Sooners. That is how the Sooners converted their only two touchdowns of the game. Alabama out-gained Oklahoma 406-212 in that game, a box score that would typically indicate a beatdown in the other direction.
Alabama was criticized for not playing its best football down the stretch, but neither was Oklahoma. In the Sooners’ final five games, they lost to Ole Miss, got out-gained by Tennessee, got out-gained by Alabama, got out-gained by Missouri, and then needed a 58-yard last-minute touchdown pass to beat LSU at home in the season finale, despite the Tigers starting their backup quarterback.
Oklahoma was outplayed multiple times in games that it found a way to win, typically through takeaways, but the team wasn’t criticized for it the way Alabama was, because its performance levels during the rest of the season were never as high as Alabama’s peak. If both teams play their best game, the Crimson Tide should win by a touchdown or more. I’ll back the better quarterback, receivers and a great coaching staff to get the job done on the road.
In addition to the Alabama moneyline, I’m taking the first-half over. Alabama’s duo of Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb is brilliant at drawing up scripted drives early in games. In big games like this, Kalen DeBoer’s offenses have always come out of the gates hot. His 2023 Washington team that made the College Football Playoff scored 20 points in the first half against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, then scored 21 points in the first half of its first-round College Football Playoff against Texas. On the Oklahoma side, Ben Arbuckle is equally elite at scheming things open for John Mateer. I have faith that these two offenses can combine for three touchdowns in the first half of this game.
