SEC rivals are set to meet once again this weekend, with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line. #9 Alabama was fortunate to reach the postseason after a blowout loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Still, the Tide are one of the nation’s most talented squads; a deep playoff run is more than possible. On the flip side, #8 Oklahoma has made it this far thanks in large part to their dominant defense. Can the Sooners put together another hard-hitting masterpiece in front of their home crowd?
Oklahoma enters Friday’s contest as 1.5-point favorites (-108) over Alabama, with the over/under set at 40.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sooners are favored at -115 on the moneyline.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction, preview
Alabama’s season has been one of peaks and valleys. The Tide started things off on a sour note, getting blown out to five-win Florida State. The program was able to rebound with victories over the likes of Vanderbilt and Georgia. However, a 28-7 championship game loss to the latter put a damper on Bama’s resume. Regardless, Kalen DeBoer’s squad has the talent to win a title. It starts at quarterback, where Ty Simpson has impressed under center. Through 13 games, the signal caller has thrown for 3,268 yards and 26 touchdowns while allowing just five interceptions. On defense, the Crimson Tide have held opponents to 283.3 yards per game, third-best in the SEC.
The biggest cause for concern in Tuscaloosa is the backfield. During their last outing vs. Georgia, the Tide tallied a mind-boggling negative three rushing yards. The team’s leading rusher this season is Jam Miller. Over nine games played, he’s gained 493 yards on 123 carries (4.0 YPC). The senior missed the SEC championship due to injury, but is expected to suit up on Friday. Finding room to operate may prove difficult in this one, however. Oklahoma has allowed 78.2 rushing yards per game, the best mark among all Power-4 schools.
As previously mentioned, OU has made its mark on defense. That’s not a major surprise with head coach Brent Venables, former defensive coordinator at Clemson. The Sooners lead the SEC in tackles for loss (115.0), sacks (41.0) and yards allowed per game (273.6). In fact, this is one of the rare defenses that can single-handedly carry their squad to a win. Look no further than the last time these teams met on November 15th in Tuscaloosa. Despite putting up only 212 yards of offense, Oklahoma notched a 23-21 victory over the Tide. That was due in large part to three crucial Alabama turnovers.
With that being said, a similar offensive output on Friday would not bode well for the Sooners. Getting the best out of quarterback John Mateer is pivotal to their chances. The senior started the year as an early Heisman favorite, combining stellar passing and speed on the ground. Unfortunately, a midseason hand injury has had a clear impact on his performance. Over his previous seven games, Mateer has thrown for 1,367 passing yards and six touchdowns while giving up seven interceptions.
During Oklahoma’s meeting with Bama, Mateer produced just 138 yards on 15-of-23 passing. Improvement this weekend is a must against one of the nation’s better defenses. After all, it’s not as if the Sooners possess a multi-faceted offense. Running backs Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson have combined for just 861 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma pick, best bet
Both of these teams have glaring weaknesses, especially on offense. Ultimately, this matchup may come down to who can run the ball more effectively. Alabama, even with a healthy Miller, doesn’t give bettors much room for confidence. In comparison, three weeks of rest should do wonders for Mateer, a difference maker when healthy. The Crimson Tide have the potential to take down any team in the nation. However, they’ve also shown they can be beaten by anyone. Oklahoma’s hard-nosed defense, especially at home, makes them a safer bet. A physical, gritty Sooners victory could be in store on Friday.
