Six weeks after suffering an MCL sprain early in the Atlanta Hawks’ October 29 win over the Brooklyn Nets, Trae Young ($9,500) is set to return to the court tonight after a 22-game absence. He returned to practice earlier in the week and was a full participant on Wednesday.
The former fifth overall pick returns amid speculation in the trade market, given that the team that has looked better at times without him and refused to give him a contract extension during the offseason. So far this season, Young has averaged 17.8 points and 7.8 assists (34.1 FPTS) per game on 37-19-82 shooting splits, though those statistics are marred by the fact that he only played seven minutes before getting injured against Brooklyn.
Counting the game in which he left early, the Hawks have gone solid 14-9 in his absence, with the league’s 12th-best offense and 13th-best defense, while they went 2-2 with the 24th-ranked offense and 25th-ranked defense in the games he played. Young’s absence has helped Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($7,100) and Jalen Johnson ($10,000) thrive, as Alexander-Walker stepped into the starting lineup and is averaging 20.4 points (33.6 FPTS) per game and Johnson has averaged a triple-double over the last month. All in all, Atlanta’s lengthy new-look starting lineup of Alexander-Walker, Johnson, Dyson Daniels ($7,000), Zaccharie Risacher ($4,300), and Onyeka Okongwu ($7,700) outscored opponents by 2.1 points per 100 possessions in 180 minutes. Presumably, Alexander-Walker would slide back to the bench for Young’s return; the Canadian will likely close in place of Risacher, but the former first overall pick has started all but two games of his career.
Since Young’s injury, the Hawks lead the league in assists per game and have shot the seventh-highest three-point percentage, so it’s not as if they need him for playmaking as much as they have in past seasons, but adding one of the league’s greatest playmaking savants never hurts. Atlanta has had some issues with turnovers, issuing the seventh-most since Young’s injury, and while he can be prone to giveaways individually, Young’s teams have turned the ball over at a lower rate with him on the floor in each of the past seven seasons. Plus, his limitless range should space the floor for Johnson and Daniels, both of whom have averaged more than 10 drives per game.
Even though he’ll likely lose his spot in the starting lineup, Alexander-Walker still has some fantasy value, as Young will presumably be on a minutes restriction in his return tonight, and his numbers are efficient enough that he’ll be critical in the starting lineup. Risacher has historically performed better with Young, so the point guard’s return could help turn around a slow start to the Frenchman’s sophomore campaign. Young probably won’t be worth his DFS salary tonight; even if he’s not on a minutes restriction, the Hornets have actually allowed the ninth-fewest FPTS per game to opposing guards.
The line did not move after it was confirmed that Young would play. The Hawks are 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-225 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 240.5. Charlotte is +185 on the Moneyline.
