An intriguing inter-conference matchup is set for Thursday out west. The Magic (15-11) have stayed afloat despite injuries to their two best players. Orlando’s hard-nosed play style can frustrate even the most prolific offenses in basketball. That’ll be put to the test tonight against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. A re-tooled Denver roster has all the pieces necessary for another deep postseason run.
Which of these contenders has the edge going into this matchup? Below is my prediction and pick for Thursday’s game between the Orlando Magic and the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites (-115) over the Magic on DraftKings Sportsbook. Denver is favored at -270 on the moneyline. The total is set at 236.5 points.
Magic vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Orlando has battled through health issues all season. At the moment, it’s Franz Wagner (ankle) sidelined, arguably the best player on the roster. In addition, two-way guard Jalen Suggs (hip) won’t take the floor tonight. Still, All-Star Paolo Banchero is capable of carrying this Magic offense. Through 16 games, he’s put up 20.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists while shooting 45% from the field. He’s supported by guard Desmond Bane, a crucial offseason pickup. The former Grizzlies standout is scoring 19.0 points on 45/35/94 shooting splits.
Orlando’s front office made a major commitment to becoming a more well-rounded team. So far, so good in that regard. The Magic rank tenth in offensive rating (116.5) and fourth in defensive rating (112.7). That’s even more impressive when factoring in Wagner and Banchero’s injuries. They’ve allowed 114.1 points per game, the NBA’s eighth-lowest mark. On the other end of the floor, Orlando’s biggest weakness is from beyond the arc. The team is averaging 11.3 three-pointers per game, the lowest total in all of basketball.
Denver has built a deep, experienced roster with a championship pedigree. Regardless, this team’s ceiling hinges almost entirely on Nikola Jokic. The three-time MVP is on track for even more hardware this season, putting up video game numbers. Through 25 games, The Joker has notched 29.8 points, 12.4 rebounds and 10.8 assists. He’s also shot 61% from the field and 43% from three-point range. Interior defense has been a weakness for the Magic this year. They have coughed up 52.5 points in the paint per game, eighth-worst in the NBA. Jokic has delivered a triple-double in three of his last four outings with Orlando.
With that being said, Denver isn’t a one-man show. Jamal Murray remains one of the association’s best guards, averaging 24.9 points and 6.8 assists per game. Offseason pickup Cameron Johnson offers elite shooting (39% 3PT) and solid defense. However, Aaron Gordon (hamstring), the team’s third-leading scorer, is injured. Fourth-leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. (illness), is questionable. That’s a not-so insignificant amount of firepower that could be absent tonight. With that being said, the Nuggets still pace the NBA with 125.6 points per game. If anyone can find a way to score, even against a formidable Magic defense, it’s them.
Magic vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
Orlando has proven they can find a way to win even without Suggs and Wagner. However, playing outside of central Florida has proven to be a challenge. The Magic are 5-6 on the road this season, not counting their NBA Cup defeat to New York on Saturday. In comparison, the Nuggets have gone 66-27 at home since the 2023-24 campaign. Denver has the best player on Earth and the more talented overall roster. Keeping that in mind, expect a fairly comfortable win for the home team on Thursday.
