The Missouri State Bears take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Thursday night in the Xbox Bowl. The game kicks off at 9:00 p.m. ET in Frisco, Texas.
The Red Wolves are listed as 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 54.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for the Xbox Bowl.
Missouri State Preview
Missouri State is in its first season at the FBS level. The Bears were a strong program at the FCS level, but bumped up to Conference USA this season. They had a great first season, winning seven games and tying for fourth in the conference. There is a lot of positive momentum for the Bears to build on moving forward, but a bowl win would really top off the first season at the FBS level for Missouri State. The Bears have a strong offense, led by quarterback Jacob Clark, running back Shomari Lawrence and a deep core of wide receivers. They will be an exciting offense to watch in this bowl game for anyone who didn’t get to watch them during the season.
Arkansas State Preview
Arkansas State had a decent season, finishing 6-6 in the middle of the Sun Belt. Their season went down basically as expected, winning the games they should have won and losing to the top teams in the conference. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor was the team’s standout performer, finishing with over 3,000 passing yards on the season, enough to rank 19th in the nation in total passing. Raynor also had 23 touchdowns, finding the end zone with his legs, as well as his arm regularly. Raynor will look to put on a show in front of the nation in the Xbox Bowl.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is Missouri State on the moneyline. The Bears have a couple of key edges that should help them win this game. Missouri State doesn’t have a great defense, but they are much stronger against the pass than against the run. Arkansas State doesn’t have a great run game, so the Bears shouldn’t have to worry about that. They can focus on Jaylen Raynor and slow down the Arkansas State passing game. Missouri State should then be able to attack the Arkansas State secondary on the other end. The Red Wolves rank 131st in the nation in defensive dropback success rate, so Missouri State’s dangerous receiving corps should win the day. The Bears should be highly motivated to win this game in their first season at the FBS level, and I’ll back them to get it done.
