The Memphis Tigers (8-4) will face the North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5) on Friday in the Gasparilla Bowl. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. EST at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
Who will add to their trophy case on Friday? NC State enters this contest as 3.5-point favorites (-110) over Memphis, with the over/under set at 56.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Wolfpack are favored at -170 on the moneyline.
Memphis vs. NC State prediction, preview
Friday marks the 12th consecutive year in a bowl game for Memphis, the longest streak for a non-Power Four school. As is usually the case, the Tigers wielded one of the nation’s most lethal offenses. The team averaged 34.6 points per game, 19th-best in all of college football. However, the school coughed up at least 28 points in all four of their losses. To make matters worse, Memphis will be without head coach Ryan Silverfield, recently hired by Arkansas. In his absence, defensive backs coach Reggie Howard will step in as interim head coach.
Despite turnover on the sideline, the Tigers still wield a well-rounded offense. The team ranks in the upper half of the American Conference in both passing and rushing yards. Under center, quarterback Brendon Lewis is one of the sport’s more underrated dual-threats. The senior has thrown for 2,567 yards while gaining 618 more on the ground en route to 24 total touchdowns. He’s supported by running backs Sutton Smith, Gregory Desrosiers and Frank Peasant. Together, the trio has combined for 1,486 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns
On paper, these teams have been built in a similar fashion. However, NC State’s offense will be without arguably its best player in Hollywood Smothers. The sophomore churned out 939 rushing yards and seven touchdowns this season. However, he is now entering the transfer portal. In Smothers’ absence, backup Jayden “Duke” Scott should get more work. The redshirt freshman tallied 619 yards from scrimmage this season. However, Memphis’ defense was actually quite strong against the run. The Tigers allowed the American Conference’s third-fewest rushing yards per game to opponents (133.4).
A diminished presence on the ground puts even more pressure on Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey. The sophomore enjoyed a decent, albeit not spectacular, season. Through 12 games, he threw for 2,884 yards and 23 touchdowns while giving up nine interceptions. Still, the signal caller might be in line for a stellar performance on Friday. Memphis’ already mediocre pass defense will be without several members of its secondary. The Tigers surrendered at least 250 passing yards in over half of their appearances this season.
Memphis vs. NC State pick, best bet
It’s bowl season, so expect both sides to have some fun in this one. That could mean letting Lewis and Bailey throw early and often on offense. For NC State, the loss of Smothers should give bettors some pause. After all, the Wolfpack have lost games in which they still managed to score 30+ points. Having a star running back churn some clock is a great way to support a lackluster defense. In comparison, Memphis has multiple ways to beat its opponents on the ground. Ahead of what appears to be an even matchup, the Tigers offer more value as underdogs.
