Divisional rivalries and playoff implications abound this week. Coaches will be channeling their inner Knute Rockne, huddling the players in the locker room to speak so that their teams can elevate and peak. There are many teams, though, that have been so weak that the conversations have been nothing but tongue in cheek. Those may be the teams we may need to seek, as their outlooks are so bleak that their defenses may just leak. Just be careful because many may be thinking the same thing, so make sure to make your lineups unique.
We’ve got 11 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven games have a spread of three points or less. There are two double-digit favorites, with HOU -14.5 over LVR the largest. Seven games have a total of at least 45 points. There are two games with a total below 40: KC/TEN (37.5) and HOU/LV (37.5). There are eight home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins ($6,500) – Both of these teams are out of the playoff picture, but I think Burrow and the Bengals offense want to wipe the bad taste out of their mouths from last week’s debacle against the Ravens at home. The weather should be pristine, currently forecast for 81 degrees and partly cloudy in Miami. The matchup should be even better, as the Dolphins have allowed a 70.9 completion percentage, the highest mark in the league. The EPA per dropback is eighth-highest while the pressure rate is 18th-best.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,200), Dak Prescott ($6,700), Jared Goff ($6,300), Bo Nix ($6,100)
Value
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,300) – Energizer should replace the rabbit with Brissett because he literally keeps producing fantasy goodies week after week. Since getting the starting nod in Week 6, Brissett has produced at least 20 FPTS in all nine starts. He’s done it in close games, blowouts, good matchups, bad matchups. It hasn’t mattered. I got off the Brissett train last week against Houston after being a VIP card carrying member for six straight weeks, as Houston boasts the best pass defense in the league. Brissett went 27-of-40 for 249 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Please forgive me, Brissett, for I sinned.
Other Options – Justin Herbert ($6,000), Jaxson Dart ($5,800), C.J. Stroud ($5,500), Tyler Shough ($5,400), Aaron Rodgers ($5,000), J.J. McCarthy ($4,900), Kirk Cousins ($4,800), Gardner Minshew ($4,500), Quinn Ewers ($4,000)
Running Back
Stud
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($8,800) – Miami made the quarterback switch from Tua Tagovailoa to Quinn Ewers, so there is uncertainty as to how this Dolphins offense will perform. What I feel fairly confident about is that Achane is going to be a huge part of it, both on the ground and through the air. Cincinnati is allowing 5.3 yards per carry on the ground with 15 touchdowns. The Bengals defense has allowed the sixth-most receptions, third-most yards and second-most receiving touchdowns to running backs on the season.
Other Options – Bijan Robinson ($8,700), Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,500), James Cook ($7,700), Chase Brown ($6,900), RJ Harvey ($6,200)
Value
Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions ($5,100) – Gainwell and Jaylen Warren are splitting the running back snaps for Pittsburgh, but Gainwell is the preferred passing down back. He has 65 targets on the season compared to 38 for Warren. Over the last two weeks, Gainwell has garnered seven targets in both contests. This game is on the fast turf in Detroit and the Lions will likely be scoring points, so the Steelers should tilt toward the passing game, which benefits Gainwell. He’s put up double-digit FPTS in four of the last five games with a high of 29.5 FPTS.
Other Options – Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5,700), Aaron Jones ($5,200)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins ($8,600) – Well, if I like Burrow, then it only makes sense I’d like his top wide receiver. Chase leads the NFL with 155 targets. The Bengals got shut out last week, but Chase hauled in 10 of 16 targets for 132 yards, good for 26.2 FPTS. He has 40 FPTS upside. Tee Higgins is still dealing with concussion symptoms, so Chase could once again see 15+ targets in a juicy matchup.
Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,400), Nico Collins ($7,500), George Pickens ($7,300), Drake London ($7,000) if he plays, Michael Wilson ($6,900) if Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, Chris Olave ($6,500), Jameson Williams ($6,400), Wan’Dale Robinson ($6,200)
Value
DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions ($5,400) – There’s a good chance Detroit puts up points in this one, which would force the Steelers to be aggressive on offense. I wrote up Gainwell above, who is second on the team with 65 targets. Metcalf is the alpha with 90 targets. The FPTS production has been all over the map for Metcalf this season, but he has two games over 20 FPTS and has scored seven touchdowns on the season.
Other Options – Courtland Sutton ($5,700), Adonai Mitchell ($4,500), Jalen Coker ($4,400), Ryan Flournoy ($3,800)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons ($7,600) – I doubted McBride and the Cardinals passing game last week. Oops. All McBride did was catch 12 of 13 targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns, good for 40.4 FPTS. McBride is essentially a WR1 and his 140 targets are second-most behind only Chase.
Other Options – Kyle Pitts ($5,000), Travis Kelce ($4,700), Jake Ferguson ($4,400)
Value
Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($3,500) – Waller has a big fat Q next to his name, but he is just having his reps managed, so all indications are that he will be good to go. Waller is only playing around 50% of the snaps, but when he’s out there, it’s to catch passes. He garnered eight targets last week and has seven red zone looks on the season. Cincinnati has been the creme de la creme matchup for opposing tight ends, as it has allowed the most FPTS on average, the most receptions, the most yards and the most touchdowns.
Other Options – Juwan Johnson ($4,000), T.J. Hockenson ($3,000)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Texans DST vs. Las Vegas Raiders ($4,000) – Oh, boy. This one could get ugly for the Raiders. Kenny Pickett went 15-of-25 for 64 yards and an interception last week while taking four sacks. Houston has the top pass defense with the lowest EPA per dropback allowed. The Texans have racked up the third-most takeaways and the eighth-most sacks.
Other Options – Saints DST ($3,400)
Value
Vikings DST at New York Giants ($2,800) – Minnesota is fourth in pressure rate and 11th in sacks. Brian Flores is a master at disguising looks and brings pressure from everywhere. There’s a chance he confuses Dart into some mistakes and sacks. In 11 games, Dart has taken 24 sacks.
Other Options – Bengals DST ($2,500)
