The Mavericks are hosting the Pistons on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Detroit is favored by 7.5 points, with the game total set at 228.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Mavericks vs. Pistons preview, prediction
The Mavericks and Pistons have been on opposite trajectories this season. Detroit is having its best season in years, sitting atop the Eastern Conference at 21-5 and ranking fifth in net rating. Conversely, Dallas has been a major disappointment with a 10-17 record and 20th-ranked net rating. One thing these squads have in common is that they hang their hats on the defensive end, with the Pistons ranking second in defensive rating and the Mavericks sitting at eighth.
Dallas’ season has been a letdown thus far, an injury-plagued campaign headlined by Anthony Davis’ nagging calf strain. Even after some extra rest during the NBA Cup this week, Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, and Brandon Williams are all listed as questionable for Thursday night.
All four players play significant roles for Dallas, and if any of them sit, much of the workload falls on the shoulders of Cooper Flagg — especially after he scored a career-high 42 points against the Jazz on Monday. Despite Flagg’s efforts, the Mavericks still lost 140-133 in overtime to the 10-15 Utah squad. The first overall pick is averaging 18.4 points per game, but shockingly ranks dead last for Dallas in plus-minus. The Mavericks’ net rating is just -7.7 with the Duke product on the floor, compared to 5.7 when he’s on the bench.
While Dallas is a strong defensive squad, Flagg currently holds them back on that side of the ball. Still, he should improve in that area with more experience. In the meantime, the Mavs’ losing ways are likely to continue — especially with the mighty Pistons in town.
Detroit is fresh off an impressive 112-105 road win over the Celtics, who rank sixth in net rating and had won five of their previous six matchups. Leading the way for the Pistons is Cade Cunningham, who’s averaging an MVP-level 27.1 points and 9.2 assists per game. Jalen Duren has taken his game to another level, averaging a career-high 18 points with 11 rebounds a night.
Plus, Jaden Ivey is slowly returning to form after recovering from a leg injury. Coming off the bench, the guard has scored double-figures in four of his last five games, despite logging under 17 minutes per game during this stretch. Detroit’s net rating rises 3.1 points with Ivey on the floor this season, and once he returns to an expanded role, this already ascending Pistons squad will become a very tough team to beat.
Mavericks vs. Pistons pick, best bet
The Mavericks have many key players listed as questionable — but even if they all suit up, they’ll still be inferior to the Pistons. Detroit should win this game, but it’s difficult to say if the Pistons will be able to cover the 7.5-point spread without knowing who will be available for Dallas.
However, one thing’s for certain: both the Mavericks and Pistons are strong defensive teams. It is also very likely that Dallas, which ranks 28th in offensive rating, will continue its offensive woes against Detroit. Count on Thursday night’s contest to fall below the 228.5-point total.
