Perhaps the biggest Thursday Night Football game of the entire season, Week 16’s matchup holds some massive implications. Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams head to the Pacific Northwest to fight for the NFC West lead with the rival Seattle Seahawks. Both sides are 11-3 and the Rams claimed the first matchup between these teams, but Stafford will need to play a great game against one of the NFL’s top defenses to try and secure the top seed in the conference.
Here are the best Matthew Stafford prop bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Rams vs. Seahawks on Thursday Night Football in Week 16.
Best Matthew Stafford prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
One can argue that no NFL player has produced a better season than Stafford this year. The odds-on favorite at -300 to win MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook, the 17-year veteran looks more than deserving of the award. He’s led the Rams to an 11-3 record thus far with a 66.4% completion rate, 3,722 passing yards and a league-leading 37 touchdowns to only five interceptions. Stafford’s yardage total also ranks second among all quarterbacks, plus he boasts the sixth-highest aDOT with the most big-time throws and highest PFF passing grade at the position. Is it unrealistic to say this is the best campaign of his entire career? Not at all — Stafford is just that dominant, which is even more impressive when taking into account the back issue he dealt with prior to the season and received an epidural for.
This matchup means a ton for both teams since they hold identical records, so putting forth an efficient performance is even more important than usual. The NFC West title is likely on the line here, as is the No. 1 seed in the conference come playoff time. It’ll be a difficult test for Stafford and the Rams, especially against a fantastic Seattle defense. The Seahawks allow just 17.3 points per game, second-fewest of any team, while the secondary concedes an average of 191.4 passing yards per game (seventh-fewest), a 62.60% completion rate (eighth-lowest) and just 6.0 yards per pass (league-best). To top it off, Stafford will face plenty of pressure against a pass rush that ranks seventh in sack percentage and third in pressure rate.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Stafford’s prop bet lines are set at O/U 33.5 pass attempts, 230.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns. His longest completion prop sits at 33.5 yards.
There are factors at work here beyond an imposing matchup against an excellent defense. The Rams’ second-leading receiver and touchdowns leader, Davante Adams, will likely miss this contest as he deals with a hamstring issue. The wideout suffered the injury last week and has been deemed “week-to-week” with a doubtful tag on the official injury report for Thursday night (as of writing this article). Without Adams on the field opposite Puka Nacua, Los Angeles loses one of its key weapons who averages 56.4 yards per game with 14 touchdowns on the campaign.
So, what’s the top Stafford prop bet for this matchup? While the over on his yardage prop may hold appeal since the quarterback averages 265.9 yards per game, it’s probably best to either target the under or avoid it entirely in this contest against a unit which limits passing yards.
Instead, I’ll personally look toward over 1.5 touchdowns as the best prop bet for the Rams star in this game. He’s tossed at least two touchdown passes in 12 of his 14 games this season, giving us an incredible hit rate on the over. Beyond that consistency, the Seahawks have given up just seven rushing touchdowns this year, tied for the second-fewest of any team. Kyren Williams may struggle to cross the goal line in this one, and Los Angeles already leans on the passing game plenty in the red zone and even at the goal line. With the uptick in 13 personnel groupings and emergence of tight end Colby Parkinson with six touchdowns in his last six games, scoring in all but one of those outings, Stafford still has weapons to depend upon near the end zone. At plus odds, this looks like a much better bet than the others on the board.
Best Bet: Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+101)
