Of the 16-game NFL Week 16 slate, five feature two teams already eliminated from the postseason. Arguably the most surprising of those is the clash between the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs, though not because of Tennesee. The Titans were expected to play meaningless games at this point, while the Chiefs entered the season as projected championship contenders.
Tennessee and Kansas City players will both sit at home during the NFL playoffs, they could still be useful for the fantasy football playoffs, which — in most leagues — are currently in the second week of the first round. I already covered the Chiefs’ angle and determined that Rashee Rice is still fantasy-viable despite Kansas City now entrusting backup Gardner Minshew II in the starting role. For the Titans, the potential league-winner is running back Tony Pollard, who had 25 carries, 161 yards, and two touchdowns (31.1 FPTS) in Week 14 against the Cleveland Browns — the final week of the regular season in most leagues — and followed it up with a 15-touch, 112-yard, one-touchdown (21.2-FPT) effort against the San Francisco 49ers in the opening week of the fantasy postseason. In the context of Pollard’s season, his recent production was a surprise, but he’s a seven-year veteran and three-year starter who’s on pace to enjoy his fourth straight 1,000-yard season.
Pollard’s sudden leap after a quiet first 11 weeks isn’t entirely a matter of volume: his three most recent games have also been his three most efficient games of the season. In large part, it comes down to Cam Ward, who’s only been sacked four times over the last three weeks after struggling majorly with sacks throughout his rookie season. Thanks to the more conservative game plan, he’s also made bad throws at lower frequency relative to earlier in the season, and a more under-control and dangerous Ward takes defensive attention away from everyone else on the offense. Plus, the blocking has gotten better; JC Latham missed four weeks early in the season but has now gotten healthy and is blocking well, and Corey Levin filled in nicely for Lloyd Cushenberry III in his two-week absence. The offensive line isn’t everything — much of the difference in Pollard’s efficiency came after contact — but his Elusive Rating wasn’t very high in either of his 100-yard games, which is a sign that he still has room to improve.
He ceiling might not be quite as high against the Chiefs, who have allowed the fifth-fewest FPTS per game to opposing running backs, but he dashed a pair of fairly strong run defenses in the Browns (14th, but second by Pro Football Focus’ rush defense grades) and 49ers (16th), so he’s still worth a start. If he can force two missed tackles against a San Francisco defense that has missed the seventh-fewest this season, it’s not unreasonable to expect more of the same against a Kansas City front seven that has missed the second-fewest. Plus, Pollard prefers to run up the middle, and both of the Chiefs’ starting interior defenders — Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi — are far better as pass-rushers than run-stuffers. Kansas City’s offense is less likely to run up the score and force Ward to throw now that Minshew, not Patrick Mahomes, is under center.
