Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Memphis Tigers College Basketball prediction, preview (Wednesday 7:00pm ET)
Vandy enters Wednesday’s road game at Memphis a perfect 10-0, with a lethal offense that’s putting up more than 95 points per game. So can the 4-5 Tigers spring the upset?
If Memphis has anything on its side, it’s that the Tigers have challenged themselves against significantly better competition. Four of Memphis’ five losses have come in road or neutral games, against Ole Miss, Purdue, Wake Forest and Louisville. No shame in any of those losses. The Tigers are 4-1 on their home court, with the ugly loss coming as a 9.5-point favorite to UNLV. However, Memphis did earn a home win as an underdog over a talented Baylor team.
That said, the Commodores will be by far the most talented team that Memphis has hosted this season. They are elite on offense, ranking fourth in offensive rating on KenPom, and still solid on the defensive side of the ball — 29th defensive rating. While the Tigers will be scrappy at home on defense, I’m not sure how they keep up on the scoreboard. Memphis doesn’t even have a top-100 offense, so it’ll really have to muck this game up to have a chance.
Seven of Vandy’s 10 wins have been as double digit favorites, so let’s toss those out and just look at games with spreads in the single digits. In the only other true road game that Vanderbilt has played so far this season, it was in a similar range, laying 9.5 at UCF. The Commodores won a 105-93 barn burner and covered the spread. In neutral games during Feast Week, the ‘Dores were laying -6.5 to VCU and -4 to Saint Mary’s — they won those games by 15 points and 25 points, respectively.
I haven’t gotten far enough to actually bet this one, as big road favorites do scare me. But the way Vandy has looked this season, facing a struggling Memphis offense, the Commodores are in position to continue putting up points and run away with another one to improve to 11-0.
