The South Florida Bulls host the Old Dominion Monarchs at South Florida on Wednesday, December 17 at 5:00 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats, and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: South Florida -3 (-108) | Old Dominion +3 (-112)
Moneyline: South Florida -155 | Old Dominion +130
Total: 52.5 (Over -112 / Under -108)
Betting Splits for South Florida vs. Old Dominion
- Spread splits: 73% of bets / 59% of handle on South Florida -3
- Moneyline splits: 82% of bets / 59% of handle on South Florida -155
- Total splits: 54% of bets / 43% of handle on Over 52.5 (meaning 57% of handle is on Under 52.5)
South Florida is receiving the bulk of the public support, but Old Dominion is drawing a larger share of money than tickets on both the spread and Moneyline, while the bigger dollars lean towards Under 52.5.
Key Stats to Know
- South Florida (offense): 47.7% success rate; 1.32 explosiveness; 4.72 points per opportunity
- South Florida (defense): 38.1% success rate allowed; havoc rate 0.165; 3.21 points per opportunity allowed
- Old Dominion (offense): 46.4% success rate; 1.273 explosiveness; 4.09 points per opportunity
- Old Dominion (defense): 38.0% success rate allowed; havoc rate 0.184; 3.21 points per opportunity allowed
*Note: Both starting QBs (Byrum Brown and Colton Joseph) have opted out of the Cure Bowl.
Stats (ATS + Efficiency Snapshot)
- South Florida ATS (2025): 8-4 ATS; average cover margin +9.92
- Old Dominion ATS (2025): 7-5 ATS; average cover margin +3.92
- First downs: South Florida 290 | Old Dominion 271
- South Florida offense profile: pass-heavy efficiency (passing PPA 0.479) with a strong standard-down success rate (0.540); creates 79 opportunities and scores 4.72 points per opportunity
- Old Dominion offense profile: slightly more run-leaning (rush rate 0.595) with strong passing-down pop (passing-down PPA 0.507); 77 opportunities at 4.09 points per opportunity
- South Florida defense profile: strong on standard downs (standard-down PPA -0.0521) but more vulnerable in passing downs (passing-down PPA allowed 0.300)
- Old Dominion defense profile: disruptive (havoc 0.184) and solid on standard downs (standard-down PPA -0.061), with better explosiveness control (1.097) than South Florida (1.329)
How to Bet South Florida vs. Old Dominion
- Lean into the market signal on the underdog: Old Dominion has less public support but a meaningfully higher share of handle than tickets on both +3 and +130, a common indicator of sharper money backing the dog.
- Under interest is coming from bigger bets: Only 46% of tickets are on Under 52.5, but 57% of the handle is, suggesting that the larger wagers prefer a lower-scoring game.
- Matchup note: South Florida’s defense is strong on standard downs but more susceptible in passing downs; Old Dominion’s passing-down offense shows efficiency (passing-down PPA 0.507), which helps the Monarchs hang around even if they don’t dominate early downs.
- ATS context: Both teams have been profitable ATS in 2025 (South Florida 8-4, Old Dominion 7-5), which supports a tighter spread outcome than public tickets imply.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
- Nykahi Davenport – Anytime TD (-111): One of the top-listed touchdown prices in the market and a focal point of South Florida’s scoring paths.
- Quinn Henicle – Anytime TD (-135): Priced as one of the strongest TD favorites for Old Dominion, signaling a high likelihood he is involved directly in finishing drives.
- Gaston Moore – 184+ passing yards (-118): A key South Florida passing threshold that aligns with the Bulls’ passing efficiency profile.
- Devin Roche – 65+ rushing yards (-124): A balanced rushing number for Old Dominion that fits a run-leaning approach and helps shorten the game if they’re protecting leads/field position.
Popular Parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook
Featured Parlay:
Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: South Florida 27, Old Dominion 24
Moneyline: South Florida
Spread: Old Dominion +3
Total: Under 52.5
South Florida is the popular side, but Old Dominion’s handle share on both spread and Moneyline points to respect on the underdog. Pair that with the bigger-money lean to the Under 52.5, and the cleanest angle is Old Dominion to keep it within a field goal in a game that lands slightly below the number.