The South Florida Bulls (6-4) and No. 16 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-3) are set to face off Wednesday night, going head-to-head in Tuscaloosa. The nonconference showdown will tip off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN’s SEC Network.
The Crimson Tide are 13.5-point favorites at home with -1200 Moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 181.5 points. Here is a preview of the American vs. SEC matchup featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
South Florida vs. Alabama Preview, Prediction
South Florida Preview
The Bulls opened the season by beating Florida A&M 102-67. An ensuing neutral site showdown against George Washington went the other way, however, as South Florida lost 99-95. Over the next few weeks, the Bulls added home wins over Coppin State, Utah State, the College of Charleston, a road win over Kennesaw State, and a neutral site win against Western Kentucky in overtime. But during that same stretch, Oklahoma State, VCU and Colorado State each got the better of USF by eight, 12, and 15 points, respectively.
Joseph Pinion, who followed coach Bryan Hodgson from Arkansas State to South Florida, leads the Bulls with 14.6 points per game. His 2.1 steals per game are also the best in the American. Forward Izaiyah Nelson went from Jonesboro to Tampa, too, and is averaging 12.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game in his new home. Robert Morris transfer Josh Omojafo, sophomore CJ Brown and freshman Wes Enis round out South Florida’s starting lineup and are each averaging between 11.6 and 13.2 points a night. Nelson is notably the only one of the bunch who measures in above 6 foot 5.
South Florida ranks No. 17 in the nation in field goals attempted per game, on top of ranking No. 4 in free throw attempts per game. They also rank No. 3 in offensive rebounds and No. 48 in blocks despite their smaller lineup. Their opponents’ 16.4 turnovers per game, meanwhile, are good for the 17th-most in the country.
According to the latest KenPom ratings, the Bulls come in at No. 86. They rank No. 95 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency, but No. 19 in adjusted tempo. Put simply, South Florida creates numerous extra possessions, even if they don’t make the most of them.
Alabama Preview
The Crimson Tide have already played a true road game at No. 5 St. John’s, a home game against No. 2 Purdue and neutral site contests against No. 8 Illinois, No. 12 Gonzaga and No. 1 Arizona. Over the course of that gauntlet, Alabama beat St. John’s by seven and Illinois by four, but lost to Purdue by seven, Gonzaga by 10, and Arizona by 21. They also notched blowout wins over Maryland and UNLV along the way, plus a tight one against Clemson.
Labaron Philon has been the top scorer in the entire SEC this season, averaging 21.7 points to go along with his 5.4 assists per game. Aden Holloway has been the Robin to Philon’s Batman, averaging 15.6 points per game after putting up 11.4 a night off the bench last year. Holloway missed three games with a wrist injury, though, and scored zero in his return to action last Saturday. Before his absence, Holloway was shooting 42.9% from deep and averaging 4.3 assists per game. Latrell Wrightsell Jr. recently returned from an injury of his own and is averaging 11.8 points per game, while Florida State transfer Taylor Bol Bowen is averaging 10.6 points per game. Sophomore forward Aiden Sherrell has been a constant in the starting lineup amid the injury bug, blocking 3.2 shots per game.
Alabama may rank No. 8 in points per game, No. 4 in three-point attempts, No. 3 in three-pointers made and No. 2 in blocked shots, but they are bottom-40 when it comes to limiting points and bottom-25 in preventing rebounds. They also turn the ball over more often than their opponents.
The Tide recently dropped to No. 16 in the KenPom, thanks in large part to their faltering defense. While Alabama ranks No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency, they rank No. 54 on the other end of the floor. Nate Oats still has his team running and gunning with the best of them, with the Crimson Tide’s 74.5 opponent-adjusted possessions per 40 minutes ranking No. 8 nationally.
South Florida vs. Alabama Pick, Best Bet
Following their loss to Gonzaga on November 24, Alabama bounced right back with a 39-point win over a mid-major in UNLV. Oats’ squad could be looking to replicate that showing on Wednesday, putting another loss deep in the rearview mirror by stringing together a true blowout. The last time the Crimson Tide played a team from the American – UT-San Antonio on December 7 – they emerged with a 42-point victory. Granted, UTSA ranks No. 285 in the KenPom, but it just goes to show how willing and able Alabama has been to run up the score against inferior opposition.
South Florida is no Gonzaga, nor are they on the same level as Illinois, or even Clemson. They would be lucky to keep it close against a high-octane offense looking for redemption. At the same time, the Bulls are one of the few teams that might be comfortable in a shootout against a speedy Crimson Tide squad. Alabama has yet to allow fewer than 84 points to a top-100 KenPom offense this season, all while South Florida has reached 95 points in six of their 10 games.
