Only four NBA teams are set to take the court Wednesday night, but the slate will still feature plenty of star power and intriguing matchups. Before you place any bets, here is one NBA parlay you can tail as the games tip off.
Using DraftKings’ NBA Consistency Sheets, I built out a parlay of player props for Wednesday night’s action. The tool features players’ averages, win percentages, home-road splits and a brand-new matchup grade, all of which are adjustable for different sample sizes and prop markets. Balancing each of those factors against each other, here’s a breakdown of all four legs featuring insights from the sheet:
Grizzlies F Santi Aldama
Pick: Santi Aldama U 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-108)
Aldama is averaging 22.3 combined points, rebounds and assists per game this season. And while he cleared 25.5 PRA in back-to-back games on December 7 and December 12, those came against teams with A- and B season matchup grades. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, boast a C- season matchup grade.
On the whole this year, taking the under on Aldama’s PRA at Wednesday’s line would carry a 77% win percentage. That same exact win rate holds in road games, which is worth keeping in mind as Memphis heads out to Minnesota. Aldama has gone under 25.5 PRA in 100% of his last five road games, finishing with just seven at the Clippers on Monday despite starting and playing 31 minutes.
Timberwolves F Jaden McDaniels
Pick: Jaden McDaniels O 14.5 points (-120)
Entering Wednesday’s action, Jaden McDaniels has only gone over 14.5 points in 52% of his games. That has climbed to 60% of his last five, though, and he is now averaging 15.8 points per game on the season. McDaniels is fresh off scoring 17 versus the Golden State Warriors and 21 against the Sacramento Kings, both of whom have F season matchup grades.
As for the Grizzlies, DraftKings has them at an A season matchup grade. McDaniels has gone over 14.5 points in each of his last three games against teams with a season matchup grade of A- or higher.
Bulls F Matas Buzelis
Pick: Matas Buzelis O 4.5 rebounds (-151)
Buzelis is averaging 5.5 rebounds per game this season, clearing 4.5 rebounds in 68% of his contests. The over’s win rate is down to 60% over his last five, but the two unders came against teams with D and D- season matchup grades.
The Cavaliers present Buzelis with a B+ season matchup grade when it comes to his rebounding outlook, and that doesn’t account for Evan Mobley being out with a calf strain. Chicago is also playing at home, where Buzelis has gone over 4.5 rebounds in 83% of his appearances.
Cavaliers G Darius Garland
Pick: Darius Garland U 20.5 points (-118)
Garland has been in and out of Cleveland’s lineup following offseason toe surgery, and his scoring prowess hasn’t exactly been on display when he has been on the court. Taking the under on Garland at 20.5 points has carried an 82% winning percentage overall and a 100% winning percentage when the Cavaliers have been on the road. The two-time All-Star has gone over that line just twice, scoring 21 on November 30 and 26 on December 14 to bring his average to 15.5 points per game.
That 26-point outing came against an A+ season matchup grade in the Charlotte Hornets, which also featured Garland shooting 0-for-3 from the field and turning the ball over once in overtime. DraftKings has the Bulls graded at a B- entering Wednesday.
