The Timberwolves are hosting the Grizzlies on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is favored by 7.5 points and this game carries a total of 230.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies preview, prediction
This is the first matchup of the season between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies. Minnesota is 17-9 and ranks seventh in net rating, while Memphis is 12-14 and ranks 18th in net rating.
Anthony Edwards is off to a great start this season, averaging 28.7 PPG, but the wing has missed two in a row with a foot injury and is questionable to play tonight. That being said, the Timberwolves have been rock solid with Edwards inactive this season, with a 4-2 record. The team actually has been 2.0 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor, as Minnesota’s defense has been lockdown without Edwards. If the star sits, Julius Randle and Naz Reid will see expanded roles as the team’s main scorers.
Edwards sitting again tonight makes sense, but either way, with a shorthanded Grizzlies team on the other side, the Timberwolves are in a prime position to notch a win on their home floor.
For Memphis, Ja Morant (ankle) has been downgraded from questionable to doubtful, while Zach Edey (ankle) and Cam Spencer (personal) are both out. Morant is having a career-worst season, averaging 17.7 PPG on 36% shooting, and the Grizzlies are far better with him off the floor, but Edey and Spencer being sidelined is very concerning for Memphis.
Edey has been one of the most impactful players in the league this season, ranking 11th in the NBA in plus/minus. With the center off the court, Memphis’ defensive rating is a huge 23.8 points worse at 118.3, and with Edey inactive, the Grizzlies are 5-10. Eight of those losses have been by double-digits. As for Spencer, the second-year guard out of UConn ranks third for Memphis in plus/minus and he has been excellent recently, scoring at least 16 points in five of his last six, including a career-best 27 points in Monday’s 121-103 win over the Clippers.
The Grizzlies’ splits with Edey and Spencer off the court this season are ugly, and with them inactive tonight, the team likely will be a mess, with Jaren Jackson Jr. attempting to lead the way as the squad’s featured player, which hasn’t been a pretty sight this season. After averaging over 20 PPG for back-to-back seasons, Jackson Jr. is averaging 17.4 PPG this season and with him on the floor, Memphis’ net rating is a poor -6.6.
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
Regardless of Edwards’ status, the Timberwolves should have no trouble beating the depleted Grizzlies tonight, especially with this game in Minnesota. This season, the Timberwolves are 9-4 at home with a 7.6-point margin of victory.
Minnesota hasn’t been great at covering in 2025-26, with a 10-16-0 ATS record, but the Timberwolves are the far superior team over Memphis and backing Minnesota -7.5 is the right call.
