Just as we all expected, rookie quarterback Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints are streaking down Bourbon Street. The team has now won two straight games and three of its last five contests thanks to surprisingly impressive play from the 26-year-old gunslinger. Ahead of a matchup against the New York Jets in Week 16, the rookie is showing legitimate fantasy football upside… but is it enough to take the gamble on him in Week 16 DFS contests?
Analysis
The Saints selected Shough in the second round of April’s draft to the sound of laughter from many sources in the NFL landscape and social media. Taking a 26-year-old rookie quarterback with little college production to his name with a near-premium pick? LOL. Well, it turns out the front office may get the last laugh in this situation.
While the week-to-week numbers may look a little bit shaky, Shough has actually played some pretty good football over the last few games of his young career. Across six outings as the Saints’ starting quarterback, he’s completed a very efficient 69.0% of his passes for 1,376 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. While the TD/INT ratio doesn’t look all that great, he’s averaging 226.0 yards per game with his arm and playing well within the structure of the offense despite lacking standout weapons beyond top wideout Chris Olave. In his three wins as the starter, Shough logged passing lines of 282 yards with two touchdowns, 144 yards with one interception, and 272 yards with one touchdown, also completing at least 65.0% of his passes in each game. Perhaps most interesting of all? He ranks 12th in PFF passing grade among all quarterbacks.
The production goes beyond the passing game though. Shough is showing real dual-threat ability with his legs, rushing for 22 or more yards in three of his last four games with 55 and 32 yards via the ground in his two most recent appearances. He also pitched in two rushing touchdowns during the Week 14 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which included the game-winning score in the final minutes. That’s where the fantasy upside begins to show.
Does Shough belong in DFS contest lineups, such as the NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] in Week 16? There’s admittedly a little bit of risk involved since he posted just 10.2 and 9.9 DKFP in two of his six starts, but one of those came against a fearsome Los Angeles Rams defense and the other results have created far more intrigue. In his other four games as the starting quarterback, the 26-year-old scored 19.0, 19.4, 22.3 and 18.1 DKFP. Overall, he averages 16.5 FPPG as the starter in New Orleans — a mark which slots him in as the QB11 in FPPG among eligible quarterbacks on this slate.
Shough comes in at a very fair salary of $5,400, placing him at an equivalent position of QB11 in terms of cost this week. Look at the other starting quarterbacks he’s priced over though — options are Jacoby Brissett (another value), Bryce Young, Aaron Rodgers, J.J. McCarthy, Kirk Cousins, Shedeur Sanders, Garner Minshew, Cam Ward, Geno Smith, Kenny Pickett and Brady Cook. That’s a long list, but Shough outperforms every one of those guys in average fantasy production. If you’re looking for something of a value option, the Saints’ starter is probably a stronger choice than all but Brissett (who I’ve covered extensively in my weekly must-start columns).
So, should you play Shough as a DFS value play in Week 16? A date against the Jets suggests a tasty matchup. Despite allowing 200.1 passing yards per game on the campaign (12th-fewest), New York’s defense has actually allowed the 10th-most passing yards and fourth-highest passer rating since trading away All-Pro defensive back Sauce Gardner. The unit also ranks 29th in EPA/pass on the season and sits tied for the fourth-most passing touchdowns allowed with 25. Finally, the Jets fall 27th in scramble percentage allowed and 30th in sack percentage, so Shough could create some fantasy points with his legs as he has in recent weeks.
With the combination of salary value and matchup upside, Shough does, in fact, belong in Week 16 DFS lineups for players looking to spend less at the quarterback position. He’s put some impressive tape on film lately and will likely add another few highlights to the reel on Sunday.
