The Steelers got past the Dolphins on Monday Night Football and are in a good spot to claim a playoff spot if they can beat the Lions this week. As they head to the Motor City, they’ll need to keep the offense going, and both running backs have been productive at different points during the season. In Week 16, should you start Kenneth Gainwell or Jaylen Warren in your fantasy lineups?
Let’s take a look at their role in the timeshare over the last few weeks, and how they could be productive as the Steelers continue their quest for the AFC North. The Lions are a tough matchup for running backs, but that doesn’t mean this is a stay-away spot.
Kenneth Gainwell’s impressive run
Gainwell has been stepping up into a much bigger role for the Steelers in the last few weeks, as my colleague Garion Thorne highlighted before Monday’s matchup. That trend definitely continued on Monday, as Gainwell posted 19.6 fantasy points by taking 13 carries for 80 yards and adding seven catches for 46 yards.
He has over 16 fantasy points in four of his last five games with three total touchdowns during that span. Gainwell has done most of his damage as a receiver out of the backfield, catching at least six passes in four of those five games.
Gainwell finished with double-digit carries for only the third time this season, and he played a bigger role at least partially because Jaylen Warren was battling an illness. Even when Warren is healthy, though, Gainwell is getting enough work as a receiver out of the backfield to be a viable option in PPR leagues, especially.
What about Warren?
Warren struggled this week, taking just 12 carries for 33 yards, but he was playing through an illness, so there’s a chance this week is just an outlier. He is the more rugged of the Steelers’ running backs and typically handles the early down and short-yardage work, with Gainwell mixing in on receiving downs.
While he did give up a little more work than usual, he had posted over 11 fantasy points in five of his last six games before Monday night, and he had 15.2 fantasy points against the Ravens in Week 14, with his sixth touchdown of the season and over 60 yards rushing and receiving.
Warren is still a viable RB2 or flex play even though he isn’t getting all the workload in the backfield. He’ll probably be over his illness and back to full strength for Week 16 against Detroit, so he’ll likely go back to getting over half the snaps for the Steelers.
The Bottom Line
The problem with relying on either running back too much is that they are both in a timeshare, and they do have a tough matchup. While the Lions’ secondary has struggled lately, the run defense has been pretty solid all season, allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position and an average of only 85.1 rushing yards and 21.4 receiving yards per game to running backs. Running backs have only scored nine touchdowns in 14 games against Detroit, so both backs should have slightly lower expectations in this matchup after a much friendlier spot against the Dolphins.
Both Gainwell and Warren are low-end RB2’s in standard-sized season-long leagues, and Gainwell’s receiving work makes him especially friendly in PPR formats as a flex play.
In single-week DFS contests on DraftKings, headlined by the NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st], Warren and Gainwell are both decent mid-range targets. Warren has a salary of $6,100, while Gainwell is even cheaper at $5,100. With that PPR upside, Gainwell is a better value play this week, although both options do remain fairly touchdown-dependent since they’re sharing time. Since the Lions don’t give up many RB touchdowns, they’re higher risk this week.
