Before the start of the season, there were questions for both the Rams and the Seahawks. Would Sam Darnold start seeing ghosts again with no Kevin O’Connell in his ear? A three-year, $100.5 million contract with $55 million guaranteed from Seattle indicated confidence that the answer would be no, but there were still uncertainties. Matthew Stafford was dealing with back issues, and there were trade rumors after the Rams allowed Stafford to speak to other teams.
Well, heading into their Week 16 showdown, both teams are 11-3 and tied for the NFC West lead, with Stafford and Darnold leading the way.
The Rams rank second in both scoring and passing yards per game, while the Seahawks sit at fifth and eighth, respectively. Los Angeles is third in EPA per dropback, while Seattle is eighth. Stafford has taken only 19 sacks while Darnold has taken only 18, good for the second and third-fewest in the league. Stafford leads the NFL in touchdowns (37) with the fewest interceptions (5) thrown. Darnold is at 22 and 11, respectively.
But Stafford and Darnold have gotten there in different ways. The Rams are 14th in pass rate, while the Seahawks are 31st. Unfortunately for Seattle, its EPA per carry is 29th while averaging only 3.9 yards per attempt. The Rams are fifth in EPA per carry, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. LA has scored 16 rushing touchdowns, compared to 14 for Seattle.
Both teams have excellent defenses as well. Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per carry with 3.9 yards per attempt and only five touchdowns. Seattle has the lowest EPA per attempt allowed with 3.8 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns.
Against the pass, Seattle has the third-lowest EPA per dropback with 17 touchdowns allowed. The unit has racked up 16 interceptions and 42 sacks, the fourth-most. The pressure rate is third-best. Los Angeles has the seventh-lowest EPA per dropback with 21 touchdowns allowed. The unit has racked up 13 interceptions and 37 sacks. The pressure rate is 13th-best.
It’s not surprising that the Week 11 game between these two teams ended with only 40 points scored, with the Rams prevailing 21-19. With Davante Adams nursing a hamstring injury, that increases the chances of Thursday night remaining a low-scoring affair. That said, Darnold did throw four interceptions in Week 11, a brutal showing he likely won’t replicate at home.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Seattle favored by 1.5 points at home with the total set at 42.5 points.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (LAR @ SEA)
Captain’s Picks
Puka Nacua ($18,000 CP): I really like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I just can’t get away from Nacua — especially with Davante Adams hobbled. Nacua ranks second in receptions this season despite missing a game and a half.
In the first five games of the season, Nacua put up at least 24 FPTS in all, with a high of 39 FPTS. He garnered double-digit targets in four of those contests and saw as many as 15 passes come his way — twice. Then he suffered an injury and put up fewer than 20 FPTS in four of five subsequent contests. The BYU product has seemingly bounced back, posting 30.9 and 38.7 FPTS in the past two games.
UTIL Plays
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($11,600): Smith-Njigba ranks fourth in the NFL in both targets and receptions. He’s failed to put up 20 FPTS just twice all year. The Ohio State product’s consistency has been outstanding, and he’s shown the ability to produce ceiling outcomes as well — topping 30 FPTS three times with a high of 40.1 FPTS. Both Nacua and JSN should produce fantasy goodies, even in a potentially low-scoring matchup.
Colby Parkinson ($5,400): With Tyler Higbee out due to injury, Parkinson has been at the top of the tight end totem pole. Over the last four games, he’s garnered four, five, five, and seven targets — good for double-digit FPTS in three of four contests with a high of 24.5. In Week 11 against Seattle, Parkinson caught both of his targets for 14 yards and a touchdown. Seattle has allowed the sixth-most FPTS on average to the position, and Parkinson could see more targets, especially in the end zone, if Adams is out.
AJ Barner ($4,400): Barner is playing around 80% of Seattle’s snaps this season and has garnered 56 targets with 13 red zone opportunities. In Week 11 against the Rams, Barner saw a season-high 11 targets, which he converted into 10 catches for 70 yards, good for 17.1 FPTS.
Fades
Kyren Williams ($9,800): Back in Week 11 against Seattle, Williams rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown for 16.6 FPTS — a mighty fine performance against the best run defense in the league. Still, over the last two games, Williams has seen a snap share of 51% and 54%, while Blake Corum has garnered 31% and 46%. Williams is now splitting the red zone opportunities with Corum. The price is too high for the expected role and matchup.
THE OUTCOME
I’m expecting another low-scoring game, but with Seattle emerging as the victor.
Final Score: Seahawks 23, Rams 20
