Tuesday night means hockey night! As usual, we’ve got a featured slate of games throughout the evening with the first contests dropping the puck at 7 p.m. EST. However, we’re looking a little bit later at the 8 p.m. window for perhaps the biggest game of the schedule. The Washington Capitals are a force in the Eastern Conference, but they’ll face a difficult matchup on the road against a Minnesota Wild squad still basking in the glory of a franchise-altering trade.
Here’s a Capitals vs. Wild prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday night’s game.
Capitals vs. Wild prediction, preview
This is far and away the premier matchup of the Tuesday slate, and for good reason. The Capitals’ 40 points place them third in the East with a goal differential of +23, the best mark of any team in the conference. They duel the Western Conference’s third-place team as well in the Wild, who have a +12 differential themselves but will surely see that number tick upwards after the acquisition of former Norris winner Quinn Hughes over the weekend.
For Washington, two-way dominance is on display with 3.31 GF/GP (fourth-best) and just 2.47 GA/GP (second-best). That’s a recipe for success even despite some of the league’s worst play on special teams with a 16.0% PP% and 75.5% PK%. If those struggles are ever ironed out, this is a Stanley Cup-caliber team. Hell, they probably are even if those marks don’t improve — that’s how impressive this group is. Tom Wilson and Alex Ovechkin pace the lineup with 32 and 31 points apiece, while four more skaters have 20+ points. That group includes defensemen Jakob Chychrun (26) and John Carlson (24) along with forwards Dylan Strome (23) and Aliaksei Protas (20). While not a perfect stat, there’s not a single skater with a negative +/- rating as well. With Vezina-caliber play from Logan Thompson (2.09 GAA, .922 SV%), the Capitals are a force to be reckoned with. The one downside at the moment is that winger Ryan Leonard went on injured reserve recently and will miss multiple weeks, but this team has the pieces to weather that loss in the meantime.
However, the Wild are firmly in the Cup conversation themselves after the massive trade that sent superstar defenseman Quinn Hughes to the Land of 1000 Lakes. You’ve got to respect a team that’s willing to go all-in, which is exactly what Minnesota has now done in a loaded Central Division. The Wild score just 2.91 GF/GP (20th) but will likely improve in that regard with Hughes, who has 24 points in 27 games and sits fourth on the team in production after netting his first goal in green on Sunday. He now forms an elite trio with Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, who have 37 points apiece. Third-leading scorer Marcus Johansson (26 P) is day-to-day, but could possibly suit up Tuesday depending on how morning skate goes. Five-on-five defense is a strong suit for this team with only 2.61 GA/GP (fifth-best), as is the power play at 23.0% (eighth-best). Granted the penalty kill rate of 78.5% isn’t elite, but that may not matter all that much against a team that can’t seem to find its stride on the man advantage. Plus, Filip Gustavsson (2.61 GAA, .908 SV%) provides a very stable presence between the pipes.
Capitals vs. Wild pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Wild as -115 favorites on the Moneyline while the Capitals come in at +102. Betting splits show 66% of straight bets in Minnesota’s favor at home with a heavy 78% of wagers leaning over on the total of 5.5 combined goals.
If you have to choose just one game to watch on Tuesday night, it’s this one. An excellent Washington roster that excels on both ends meets a Minnesota unit studded with stars while trying to integrate one of the league’s most elite talents into its structure… could this potentially be a Stanley Cup Final preview? Perhaps!
It’s so very difficult to pick a winner in this one given the talent on both sides of the ice. However, what does stand out to me at least is the split on the total. Sure, some of the NHL’s top offensive players will skate on Tuesday night, but both of these defensive units play very strong hockey, lay plenty of hits on their opponents, and have excellent goalies in their respective nets. Thompson looks like one of the league’s best goaltenders — one can argue the best — and Gustavsson is also still quite impressive even if he’s a smidge behind last year’s numbers. With the blue liners in front of each of those guys, I actually feel like the best move is to take the opposite approach of most of the betting public and take the under here. A 2-1 or 3-2 finish feels likely, and I’d rather go with that than try to determine which heavyweight wins this bout. Instead of picking a winner, I’ll just enjoy the show.
