It’s been a rough few weeks for Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins, who missed Weeks 12 and 13 due to a concussion before being sidelined for Week 15 as well due to another concussion. His status for Cincinnati’s upcoming game against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday remains somewhat unclear early in the week, but if the star wideout is once again sidelined, who steps up in his place? Fellow receiver Andrei Iosivas feels like a natural choice, but what can we expect from the third-year pro in Week 16 for the purposes of DFS contests on DraftKings?
Analysis
To be entirely clear, nothing is yet set in stone regarding Tee Higgins’ injury status. As of Monday, he was still in concussion protocol per Bengals head coach Zac Taylor. The team also won’t release a practice report until Wednesday, though it’s worth noting the wideout did log two limited practice sessions last week even though he didn’t end up clearing protocol requirements in time to play in Week 15’s loss. While Cincinnati reportedly plans to play starting quarterback Joe Burrow despite being eliminated from playoff contention already, the team may also want to play it safe with its $115 million receiver, too. Thus, keep an eye on the injury report and Higgins’ status heading into midweek for a better picture regarding whether he’ll play.
With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s assume the star doesn’t suit up in Week 16. That would likely bump Andrei Iosivas up to the WR2 role on the outside, evidenced by his 83%, 94% and 89% snap shares over the last three games Higgins missed. The Princeton product hasn’t quite popped off in his teammate’s absence with totals of 10.6 and 9.9 fantasy points across Weeks 12 and 13 prior to a zero-point performance this past week, so the numbers don’t imply strong performance based on what we’ve seen from him thus far in a larger role. In fact, Iosivas logged four catches for 61 yards on seven targets in Week 12, but saw only two targets in Week 13 and just one opportunity in Week 15. A larger snap share doesn’t always equate to additional production — we’re seeing that in real time here.
There are a couple of reasons for that. In the past, Mike Gesicki has benefitted quite a bit when Higgins misses time with an uptick of opportunities as a big-bodied target who can line up from the slot as a wide receiver would. In seven games for the Bengals without Higgins active, Gesicki averages 6.0 targets with 4.1 receptions for 48.9 receiving yards. He’s racked up 73 yards or more in three of those seven contests, so he does get additional chances to make an impact without the wideout. For reference, the tight end averages just 4.3 targets and 3.2 catches for 32.5 receiving yards per game across his two-year career with Cincinnati.
The other reason Iosivas hasn’t posted impressive numbers may have something to do with the talent playing across from him. Superstar wideout Ja’Marr Chase commands the NFL’s fourth-highest target share among wideouts at 32.84% this season and saw 14 targets in Week 13 with another 16 targets in Week 15 with Higgins out. It’s clear that regardless of who plays quarterback, targeting the team’s top wide receiver becomes an even greater priority when his co-star misses time. After all, why not put the ball in the hands of your top playmaker?
So, should you look toward Iosivas as a must-start options in Week 16 DraftKings DFS contests like the NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]? Based on the above information, the answer leans in the direction of no. It’s difficult to project consistent volume for the wideout, which makes him a pretty risky play on Sunday even in a somewhat appealing matchup against the Dolphins. However, it’s tough to argue against Iosivas’ hypothetical upside at a meager salary of just $3,900. Could he post a similar line to the Week 9 contest in which he scored 18 DKFP while catching five of his seven targets for 66 yards and a score? The probability remains low, but likely increases if Higgins doesn’t play.
The final decision depends on your lineup construction, but I’d personally avoid Iosivas in DFS this week regardless of if he sees a bump in the pecking order or not. There’s simply too much risk here for my liking.
