The time might finally be upon us.
After a truly underwhelming performance on Monday Night Football against the Steelers, Tua Tagovailoa’s time as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback might be coming to an end. On Tuesday, asked if a QB change might be in order for Week 16, Mike McDaniel did not rule out a swap, even going so far to say that “the quarterback play [on Monday] was not good enough.”
It’s the most negative McDaniel has really ever been publicly when discussing Tagovailoa, and it speaks to not only the team’s frustration in the play of the former fifth-overall pick, but also the tenuous nature of McDaniel’s job security heading into next season — a season where Tagovailoa will enter the second year of a $212 million contract.
Miami certainly has some question marks heading into 2026, but for the purposes of this article, let’s simply focus on this Sunday’s matchup with the Bengals. Could a new quarterback be good news for Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller?
Tua Tagovailoa’s Struggles
Remember 2023? When the Dolphins’ offense was unstoppable and hanging 70 points on the Broncos? That was a pretty amazing campaign for Tagovailoa, with the quarterback leading the NFL in passing yards (4,624) and tossing a career-high in touchdowns (29). It was a season that earned Tua’s his now hilariously gargantuan contract.
Well, Tagovailoa’s still leading the league in statistics in 2025. The only problem is that stat is interceptions (15). The Hawaii native is also averaging a microscopic 5.29 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, down from an NFL-high 8.37 yards per attempt in 2022 — McDaniel’s first season in Miami. The loss of Tyreek Hill in Week 4 to a season-ending knee injury isn’t helping matters, yet even the speedy wideout had seen a significant drop in his yards per reception in 2024 and the four games he was available for this season.
Among qualified QBs, Tagovailoa’s 36.7 QBR is the fourth-lowest mark in football, besting only the likes of Cam Ward, J.J. McCarthy and Geno Smith. In a fantasy lens, Tagovailoa is producing only 0.40 FPTS per drop back, as his completely inability to scramble or take hits has turned him into a statue in the pocket. He’s also only thrown for over 250 yards twice in his past nine starts, with both performances due largely to garbage time stat-stuffing in blowouts. To be blunt, there simply hasn’t been a positive to Tagovailoa’s game in 2025.
Next Man Up?
One reason that Tua Tagovailoa has been able to hold onto his starting role for as long as he has — aside from financial obligations — is that Miami doesn’t really possess an obvious replacement. There are two other QBs on the Dolphins’ roster: Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers. The former is a disgraced former second-overall pick with more career interceptions (25) than touchdown passes (23). The latter is a seventh-round rookie, who despite some great collegiate numbers at Texas, was in the process of losing his job to a freshman before he declared for the NFL Draft.
On the team’s official depth chart, Wilson is listed as the No. 2 quarterback to Tagovailoa, though with the Dolphins now eliminated from the postseason, it would probably make more sense to give snaps to the unknown quantity in Ewers. Neither inspires all that much confidence. However, Tagovailoa’s thrown 11 picks to his 10 touchdowns since the beginning of Week 6. It’s a span where he’s also averaging 183.6 passing yards per game. How much worse could Ewers or Wilson really be?
The Bottom Line
At the end of the day, the Dolphins want to run the football and get the ball into their hands of their best playmaker: De’Von Achane. In fact, over their past three contests, Miami’s run on a whopping 52.4% of its offensive snaps, and on top of that, it’s Achane that leads the team in receptions for the season as a whole (61). That trend, in and of itself, is going to limit the fantasy appeal of assets like Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller going forward — regardless of who’s playing QB.
That said, Waddle should still be considered a low-end WR2 in Week 16, as he’s averaged a healthy 6.7 targets per game since the aforementioned Hill went down with an injury. Waddle is also in range of his fourth-career 1,000-yard season, and he’s the Dolphins’ lone wideout with over 300 yards receiving through 15 weeks. Even in a bad situation, he’s clearly the No. 1 weapon in this aerial attack.
As for Waller, he’s in a very unique spot heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Bengals. Waller is now three games removed from an IR stint for a pectoral issue, and he logged a 54.0% snap share on Monday Night Football — his highest since all the way back in Week 6. The veteran tight end also hauled in a pair of garbage time touchdowns in the 28-15 loss. If you remove Waller’s “game” against the Browns where he got hurt and left after 16 offensive snaps, the TE has now registered six touchdowns in his six contests this season. Not too shabby.
Waller could certainly act as a “security blanket” for Ewers or Wilson, if Miami does indeed make a QB change before Sunday’s tilt. However, matchup is a more enticing narrative here. Cincinnati has been destroyed by opposing tight ends all season long, giving up the most fantasy points to the position, along with the most touchdowns per game (1.1). Let me rephrase that last part. Since Week 3, the Bengals have surrendered 15 touchdowns to TEs in 12 contests. If there was ever a time to play Waller, it’s now. It doesn’t matter who’s under center.
