Four straight losses have sent Florida State a 5-5 record. Tonight, the Seminoles will attempt to bounce back on the road in Ohio. Dayton has been one of the Atlantic 10’s best programs over the past decade. That’s the case yet again this season for the 8-3 Flyers. Tuesday presents an opportunity for them to earn a major non-conference victory.
Which team has the edge going into this ACC-A10 showdown? Dayton enters this evening as 6.5-point favorites (-112) over Florida State. The total is set at 161.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Tuesday’s game between the Seminoles and the Flyers.
Florida State vs. Dayton prediction, preview
It’s been an uninspiring start to the Luke Loucks era in Tallahassee. The first-year head coach has yet to pick up a win against any high-major opponent. That includes blowout losses to Houston, Georgia and Texas A&M. If there’s any glimmer of hope, the Seminoles dropped a 78-76 nail-biter to in-state rival Florida. Still, that performance looks like an outlier following a month of lackluster play.
Unlike in years past, Florida State’s roster is built around offense. The Noles rank 62nd in all of college basketball with 85.3 points per game. Four different players on the roster are averaging double-digit points, led by guards Robert McCray V (14.8 PPG) and Lajae Jones (12.5 PPG). Extra buckets are due in large part to FSU’s rapid-fire pace; the team plays at college basketball’s seventh-quickest tempo (74.5) per KenPom. However, they only rank 116th in adjusted offensive efficiency (111.5). That’s due in large part to a lack of success on the glass. The Seminoles are averaging 23.7 defensive rebounds per game, the ACC’s second-lowest mark.
An inability to box out hurts FSU in most matchups, but maybe not on Tuesday. Dayton has snagged 33.5 boards per game, second-worst in the Atlantic 10. However, what the Flyers lack in size, they make up for with exceptional guard play. Out of the backcourt, De’Shayne Montgomery and Javon Bennett have combined for 31.7 points per game. Only one other player on the team, center Amael L’Etang, has posted more than 8.2 PPG. With that being said, head coach Anthony Grant wields a deep, versatile roster. Nine different Dayton players are averaging at least ten minutes per game.
Dayton is a true jack of all trades team; there isn’t anything this group does very well or poorly. However, the Flyers are 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.1), per KenPom. The biggest factor behind that ranking is their conference-leading 9.9 steals per game. By creating chaos, a smaller starting five uses speed and agility to its advantage. That could spell trouble for a Florida State squad that turns the ball over 12.5 times per game, second-worst in the ACC.
Florida State vs. Dayton pick, best bet
Nothing about FSU’s four-game losing streak should inspire much confidence from fans. After all, the Seminoles haven’t just lost; they’ve looked uncompetitive against quality opponents. Following a defeat at home to UMass, it’s difficult to trust this group on the road. In comparison, Dayton has earned non-conference wins over programs such as Georgetown and Marquette. In addition, the Flyers lost by just four points against AJ Dybantsa and #10 BYU. Their frenetic, turnover-inducing defense could prove to be the difference tonight.
