The Butler Bulldogs (8-2) and UConn Huskies (10-1) are set to face off Tuesday night, going head-to-head in Hartford, Connecticut. The conference showdown will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.
The Huskies are 14.5-point favorites at their secondary home arena with -1600 Moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 145.5 points. Here is a preview of the Big East matchup featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Butler vs. UConn Preview, Prediction
Butler Preview
Following a trio of blowout victories over Southern Indiana, IU Indy and Chicago State to open the season, the Bulldogs lost 87-85 on the road against SMU. Butler immediately bounced back with neutral site wins against South Carolina and Virginia, plus home wins versus Wright State and Eastern Michigan. Boise State beat Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse shortly after, though, and it took the Bulldogs two overtimes to sneak past Providence on Saturday.
Finley Bizjack has taken a major leap in his third season at Butler, jumping from 10.3 to 18.8 points per game while shooting 38.9% on 7.2 three-point attempts a night. He has topped 20 points in four of his last five games, too. Gonzaga transfer Michael Ajayi, meanwhile, is approaching his previous success at Pepperdine by averaging 17.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. Jamie Kaiser, a Maryland transfer who missed all of last season recovering from ankle surgery, is averaging 10.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. South Carolina State transfer Drayton Jones is a defensive stalwart, while Azavier Robinson is rounding out the starting lineup in the injured Jalen Jackson’s absence.
The Bulldogs rank top-50 in field goal percentage and assists per game, on top of ranking top-10 in rebounds and free throw attempts per game. Their 66.3% free throw percentage is a red flag, however, given how often they get to the line. Butler’s opponents commit the third-most fouls in the country, but they also block the 15th-most shots, hit the 14th-most two-pointers, and attempt the third-most field goals overall.
Butler slots in at No. 51 in the KenPom, entering Tuesday with the No. 39 adjusted offense and No. 86 adjusted defense.
UConn Preview
The Huskies entered the season as a top-five team in the country, and they have yet to disprove that ranking. UConn battered New Haven, UMass-Lowell, and Columbia before eking out an 86-84 win over No. 7 BYU in Boston. And while No. 4 Arizona ended the Huskies’ undefeated season in Hartford on November 19, UConn has since notched a win at No. 21 Kansas, two victories against No. 13 Illinois and No. 18 Florida at Madison Square Garden and a home win over Texas.
Junior guard Solomon Ball is UConn’s leading scorer at 14.5 points per game, despite his former Big East-leading 41.4% three-point percentage last year falling to 28.4% this year. Big man Tarris Reed Jr., who just returned from a two-game absence due to an ankle injury, isn’t far behind at 14.3 points per game, plus 7.3 rebounds per game. Senior forward Alex Karaban is also in the mix with 13.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game on .514/.440/.842 shooting splits. Georgia transfer Silas Demary Jr. is averaging 9.3 points per game, but his 5.1 assists a night more notably lead the team.
UConn ranks No. 36 nationally in field goal percentage at 49.6%, on top of ranking No. 30 in assists, No. 25 in blocks and No. 32 in limiting turnovers on a per game basis. Their defensive stats are more impressive, with their opponents ranking dead last in assists per game, eighth-to-last in points per game and bottom-20 in field goal percentage and three-point percentage.
That defensive production shows up in the latest KenPom ratings, as UConn boasts the No. 8 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. They also have the No. 17 offense, slotting them in at No. 7 in terms of overall opponent-adjusted net efficiency.
Butler vs. UConn Pick, Best Bet
UConn is fresh off an eight-point win over Texas, who is just two spots above Butler in the KenPom. The Longhorns, like the Bulldogs, have a top-40 offense and a top-90 defense, so the Huskies should be able to handle them in similar fashion.
Butler has been running at a considerably faster tempo than Texas, though, so it isn’t a one-to-one comparison. The Bulldogs have exceeded 145.5 total points in nine of their 10 games this season, only failing to do so by one point against Boise State earlier this month. Even taking out the two overtimes against Providence, that contest would have cleared Tuesday’s line by 32.5 points. UConn, on the other hand, has only had their games clear 145.5 four times in 11 games and once in their last seven.
A slightly higher-tempo contest could help the Huskies build out a bigger lead than they had against the Longhorns last weekend, but not to the point where covering a 14.5-point spread feels like a safe bet. If UConn can make a habit of feasting on a Butler defense that has been vulnerable in the paint, maybe their possessions won’t eat up as much time. Should that be the case, the final score could creep up higher than the Huskies’ most recent results.
