The Pittsburgh Steelers will face off with the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football to close down the Week 15 NFL slate.
It has been a somewhat disappointing season for both teams, and each head coach would benefit from a strong ending to help with their job security. Tua Tagovailoa and company have dropped to 6-7 on the season, although they have won four straight games entering this matchup. The Steelers hold a 7-6 record and have managed to climb to the top of the AFC North.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Steelers enter as three-point favorites and hold -175 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dolphins are +145 underdogs, with the game total set at 42.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Tua Tagovailoa prop bets ahead of tonight’s Week 15 Monday Night Football matchup.
Best Tua Tagovailoa Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Tua Tagovailoa Under 0.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
When thinking of the top qualities for Tua Tagovailoa, rushing production is pretty far down the list. The Alabama product was never a player known for leaning on his legs, and this has especially been the case since his injury history has stacked up.
After finishing with 17 rush attempts for 47 yards last season, Tagovailoa enters this Week 15 matchup with 19 rush attempts for 42 yards on the year. He has not tallied more than 10 rushing yards in a game all season and has not generated a rushing attempt in three games this year. With kneel-down or negative rushing attempts in mind, Tagovailoa has finished with under 0.5 rushing yards in five of the 13 games.
Not having TJ Watt changes the makeup of the Pittsburgh defense in a significant way. Tagovailoa only takes off out of necessity, and he should have a cleaner pocket than would be the case with Watt on the field. The Steelers are coming off back-to-back games against Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in which they did a respectable job containing the pair of MVP quarterbacks on the ground. Tagovailoa does not provide nearly the same level of threat, and expect both sides to be completely content with him remaining in the pocket. While just one rush attempt can cost you the wager, the Dolphins quarterback has simply not leaned on his legs at a reliable enough rate to be scared away. Expect Tagovailoa to finish with under 0.5 rushing yards tonight.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 194.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Plenty is made about Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles when playing in cold weather. This, paired with the fact that he is averaging just 157.0 passing yards per game over his past four matchups, puts Tagovailoa’s prop line at a very friendly number. The weather is a fair concern, as is the fact that he has been held to under 194.5 passing yards in eight of the 13 games this season.
But the Steelers’ defense presents a great opportunity to get back on track, and it is a style of defense that Tagovailoa tends to have success against. Pittsburgh enters this game ranked 20th in points allowed and 28th in total yards conceded. Looking just at their pass defense, the Steelers are 18th in passing touchdowns conceded and 27th in passing yards allowed. They are allowing an average of 244 passing yards per game, and 12 of the 13 quarterbacks they have faced have tallied over 196 passing yards against them. Josh Allen was surprisingly the lone quarterback to fail to reach this mark, but this was driven by the comfortable lead throughout, which finished with a 26-7 Bills’ win.
Pittsburgh leans heavily on Cover-1 and Cover-3 coverages. Tagovailoa has his flaws as an arm talent, but he does an excellent job finding gaps in this style of coverage and allowing his playmakers to do the work. Even with his struggles, he has thrown for as many as 315 passing yards in a game this season and over 194.5 in five of the games he has played. This prop line has slipped to a level where there is value, and I am backing Tagovailoa to fight back against the cold-weather narrative and carve up a vulnerable defense for over 194.5 passing yards tonight.
