Week 15 of the NFL slate will conclude with an AFC battle between the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pressure is on for both of these teams, with the seat being a bit warm for each head coach. The Dolphins hold a 6-7 record on the season, but have won four straight entering this matchup to provide some semblance of hope. The Steelers are 7-6 on the season and have managed to climb to the top spot in the AFC North despite their struggles this year.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Steelers enter as three-point favorites and hold -170 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dolphins hold +142 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 42.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 15 Monday Night Football matchup between the Dolphins and Steelers.
Dolphins at Steelers Best Prop Bets
De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown (-120)
De’Von Achane does not get mentioned among the top running backs in the league at the rate he deserves to. The 24-year-old is in the midst of a career-best season and has a great chance to add to it tonight. Achane has tallied 1,126 rushing yards, 338 receiving yards, and has 11 total touchdowns on the season. He is leading the NFL in yards per carry and has been left off the final injury report after popping up with a rib injury in last week’s matchup.
Despite their reputation as a defense-first football team, the Steelers have massively underwhelmed on this side of the ball this year. Pittsburgh ranks 20th in points allowed and 28th in total yards conceded. They have struggled to stop the run, giving up the 12th-most total rushing yards and ranking 18th in net yards per rush attempt. The Dolphins leaned on a pass-oriented style of attack for several years, but this has shifted this season- especially recently.
Achane has reached the end zone in nine of the 13 games that he has played this season. This includes back-to-back games entering this matchup and four touchdowns over the past four weeks. His ability to play a role in the passing game expands his potential to score, and Miami has not been shy to put the ball in his hands. Achane was limited to just seven carries last week due to the rib injury, but tallied 20+ touches in five consecutive games leading up to that. Expect him to be the biggest scoring threat on the Dolphins tonight and get several attempts to punch it in. The -120 odds are far lighter than they have been set for the past few games and back Achane to reach the end zone for the 12th time this season.
Jonnu Smith to Record 15+ Receiving Yards (+114)
Jonnu Smith spent last season in Miami, where he had a career-best season. The Florida International product pulled in 88 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns, each marking career highs, and earned his first Pro Bowl appearance. After exceeding expectations on the prove-it deal, Smith wanted a raise for his performance and went to the lengths of sitting out of OTAs to force the issue. Miami did not blink at his demands and ended up trading him to the Steelers. He will now have a chance to get revenge on his former team tonight.
Smith has not quite been able to replicate the output of last year, but still has shown some flashes. He has pulled in 30 receptions for 190 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh relies on a tight end rotation of Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and Smith, with all three playing a role. Smith is averaging 57.2% of the offensive snaps on the season and has clocked as many as 83.2% of the offensive snaps in a matchup this year.
The Dolphins’ defense ranks 15th in points allowed and 19th in yards given up. Opposing tight ends are averaging 6.3 catches for 67.9 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns have been scored against Miami. Smith is averaging 14.6 receiving yards per game on the season. He has tallied 15+ receiving yards in eight of the 13 games overall. With the mark so low and the added motivation in mind, I am backing Smith to get his revenge and tally at least 15 receiving yards tonight.
Kenneth Gainwell to Record 40+ Receiving Yards (+257)
One of the more surprising bright spots on this Steelers team has been the impact of Kenneth Gainwell. The former Eagles running back has continued to climb the depth chart throughout the season and earned an important role in the team’s offensive attack. Overall, he has tallied 374 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground, as well as 286 receiving yards and a pair of receiving scores.
Gainwell has become increasingly important as a pass catcher in the offense. He has earned Aaron Rodgers’ trust and seen six or more targets in three of the past four games. His 50 receptions trail only DK Metcalf (52) for the most on the team. This is especially noteworthy with Miami struggling to slow down opposing running backs out of the backfield. They enter this matchup having allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs, allowing almost eight yards per reception.
Jaylen Warren was a surprising addition to the Steelers’ injury report this morning as he is questionable with an illness. If he is limited in any capacity, this will lead to more opportunities for Gainwell. With his role scaling up and his ability as a pass catcher overlapping with a key weakness on the Miami defense, this has the makings of a potentially big day. The standard receiving prop line is set at 23.5 for Gainwell on DraftKings Sportsbook. But he has tallied as many as 81 receiving yards in a game this season, and I am pushing to odds a bit further to back him to take the ball 40 yards through the air tonight.
