The Clippers are hosting the Grizzlies on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Los Angeles is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 228.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Clippers vs. Grizzlies preview, prediction
The Clippers and Grizzlies will go head-to-head tonight for the third time in less than a month. Memphis won the first two matchups by five and nine points, but the club had Zach Edey available for both of these victories and the big man will be out tonight with an ankle injury, which is bad news for the Grizzlies.
While Memphis is only 11-14 and ranks 18th in net rating this season, the team has been far better with Edey active with a 7-4 record. The Grizzlies own an elite 18.3 net rating with Edey on the floor and he ranks 12th in plus/minus for the entire NBA. However, with him off the court, Memphis’ net rating plummets to -7.9 and the team is 4-10 with Edey inactive with an average margin of defeat of 11.0 PPG. The Purdue product is averaging 13.6 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game, all of which are easily career-highs.
Especially on the defensive end, Edey truly has been one of the most impactful players in the league this season, as the Grizzlies’ defensive rating drops a whopping 24.0 points with him off the floor to a terrible 118.5. Memphis should be fine offensively with Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. healthy, but the Grizzlies should be a mess defensively with Edey sidelined.
The Clippers have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments this season with a 6-19 record and ranking 23rd in net rating. Los Angeles has been subpar on offensive, ranking 19th in rating, but it’s defense has been the main problem, ranking 26th in rating. James Harden is leading the team with 26.8 points and 8.3 assists per game, but he is listed as questionable with a calf contusion and in danger of missing his first game of the season. Harden has been a durable player throughout his career, but calf injuries are always a serious concern, so him sitting tonight is very possible.
It’s a give and take situation with Harden this season, as the Clippers’ offensive rating is great with him on the floor at 117.3, but their defensive rating is terrible at 120.9. So, if he is out, Los Angeles will suffer on offense, but it will improve dramatically on defense. If Harden is out, expect Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac to both see big usage rates, and Bogdan Bogdanovic – who is leading the team in plus/minus – to garner an expanded role. Either way, with or without Harden, the Clippers do deserve to be favorites over the Edey-less Grizzlies tonight and this is a strong spot for Los Angeles to snap its three-game losing streak.
Clippers vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
The Clippers have been a mess this season, but the Grizzlies have been even worse with Edey out of the lineup and Los Angeles should be able to win this game, regardless of Harden’s status. That being said, the Clippers being 4.5 point favorites does feel slightly aggressive, given Los Angeles is an ugly 8-17 ATS this season.
However, one thing the Clippers have been great at is covering in the first half with a league-best 17-8 ATS record and they are a terrific wager to cover -1.5 in the first half tonight.
