The Nuggets are hosting the Rockets on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Denver is favored by 1.5 points, with the game total set at 237.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Rockets vs. Nuggets preview, prediction
Outside of the defending champion Thunder, the Nuggets and Rockets have been the best teams in the NBA this season. Houston is 16-6 and ranks second in net rating, while Denver is 18-6 and sits at third in net rating. These two Western Conference powerhouses first met last month in Houston, where the Nuggets captured a 112-109 victory — despite Aaron Gordon exiting with a hamstring injury just three minutes in.
Gordon has been sidelined since, missing the team’s last nine games. The forward leads Denver in plus-minus and is the team’s best defender. With Gordon off the floor this season, the Nuggets’ defensive rating drops by 13.3 points. Still, Denver is 8-3 without Gordon this season, as their league-best offense has held strong in his absence.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in offensive rating this season by a wide margin. While their defense has lagged without Gordon, their offense is so potent that it’s difficult for opposing teams to keep up.
Their offense is headlined by Jamal Murray and perennial MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, both of whom are having outstanding seasons. Murray is averaging 24.4 points and 6.9 assists per game while shooting 50% from the field — all of which are career-highs. Jokic remains arguably the league’s best player, averaging a triple-double with 29.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.9 assists per game.
The Rockets traded for Kevin Durant this offseason with hopes that the former MVP would make them a legitimate contender — and he’s done just that. Along with the Thunder, Houston is one of only two teams to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating this season.
Durant is leading the team with 24.8 PPG on 50% shooting. The forward’s presence has brought out the best of Alperen Sengun, who’s averaging new career highs with 23 points and seven assists per game.
Just like the first matchup between these squads, tonight’s tilt should be an exciting, back-and-forth duel between two of the NBA’s best.
Rockets vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
This game should come down to the wire again. However, Gordon’s sidelining gives the Rockets a slight advantage to redeem themselves and even up the season series.
While the Nuggets are at home on Monday night, they’ve gone just 6-4 at the Ball Arena. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 8-4 on the road. I do like investing in the Rockets to win on the moneyline (-108), but a stronger bet for this game is over 237.5 points.
These are two of the best offenses in the league, and the Nuggets’ defense is weakened without Gordon. This game should be a full-blown shootout, and 237.5 points is just too low a number for this matchup. For the over this season, Denver is 16-8, and Houston is 13-8-1 — both of which are top-six records.
