This is one of those games that I’ll be thankful to watch from my couch. While there’s not supposed to be much wind or any snow tonight in Pittsburgh, it will be bone-chillingly cold for tonight’s tilt between the Steelers and the Dolphins. Beyond the elements, it’s a must-win game for both teams to close out Week 15, as Pittsburgh looks to stay ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North, and Miami attempts to keep its slim playoff hopes alive.
With a total of just 42.5 points on DraftKings, not many are expecting fireworks on Monday Night Football. That’s okay. For this article, we only need one touchdown.
Let’s break down the first touchdown scorer odds for MNF and make a couple picks.
Dolphins vs. Steelers First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Kenneth Gainwell First Touchdown Scorer (+800)
This really doesn’t have anything to do with the questionable tag for Jaylen Warren (+550), as NFL Network reports the running back is optimistic that he’ll end up playing on Monday night. No, this is far more about the fact that Gainwell and Warren are essentially locked in a 50/50 split, so you might as well back the option with slightly longer first touchdown odds. The duo are tied for the Steelers’ team lead in touchdowns (6), and while Warren has a small advantage in rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 10-yard line — out-carrying Gainwell 16-to-14 — Gainwell’s seen 12 red zone targets this season, which ranks second to only DK Metcalf (+800) and his 13 high-leverage looks. Heck, Gainwell’s 50 receptions for the season as a whole are right up there for the team-lead with Metcalf, too. There’s the real reason Gainwell is appealing. He’s got a legitimate shot to find the end zone on the ground or through the air. That’s a rare thing.
Greg Dulcich First Touchdown Scorer (+2500)
While I don’t believe the Dolphins’ intent is to pass the ball all that much on Monday — the Steelers have allowed 200 opponent rushing yards in back-to-back games — it is surprising to see a de facto TE1 with odds this long for first touchdown scorer. I know. I know. Darren Waller (+1200) is Miami’s No. 1 tight end. I guess that’s sort of true, though the veteran has been used sparingly since his return from a pectoral injury, logging a snap share below 47% in both the Dolphins’ win over the Saints and the Jets. Meanwhile, Dulcich out-snapped Waller 35-to-24 in Week 14, hauling in all three of his targets for 41 yards. Going up against a Pittsburgh defense that has surrendered the third-most touchdowns per game to opposing TEs this season (0.6), I like Dulcich to find the end zone for the first time since his rookie campaign in 2022. At least, I like his odds to do it first.
