On Week 15’s edition of Monday Night Football, two AFC foes meet in frigid conditions as the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) host the Miami Dolphins (6-7) in primetime. With the home team still battling for a playoff berth, every snap counts for the Steelers, who’ll see their postseason probability jump to 61% with a win but fall to 45% with a loss. Now confirmed active despite battling an illness, what prop bets might stand out for the Steelers’ starter?
Here are the best Jaylen Warren prop bets for Steelers vs. Dolphins on Monday Night Football in Week 15.
Best Jaylen Warren prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
After a couple of solid seasons in a complementary role as part of Pittsburgh’s backfield committee, Jaylen Warren earned a two-year extension with the team worth roughly $12 million just prior to the start of the 2025-26 campaign. In his first year as the true starter, he’s not putting up the most eye-popping numbers but remains a very steady contributor and one of the most reliable offensive weapons on the field for this iteration of the Steelers. The halfback has carried the ball 159 times for 652 yards (4.1 YPC) and four rushing touchdowns, placing him 22nd at the position in both rushing attempts and yards. However, he does display impressive shiftiness with 37 forced missed tackled, good for 13th among running backs.
Warren impacts the game in more ways than just via the ground, though. He’s among the NFL’s most underrated receiving threats out of the backfield with 30 catches for 277 yards and two touchdowns on his 32 targets. That places him ninth in receiving yards at his position despite sitting just 23rd in targets — that says a lot about his efficiency, and the numbers are backed up by the fifth-best PFF receiving grade out of all halfbacks in the league. That dual-threat ability means there are variety of ways to play his prop bet lines.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Warren’s prop bet lines at O/U 12.5 rush attempts, 49.5 rushing yards, 2.5 receptions and 13.5 receiving yards. His combined rush + receiving yards line sits at 68.5 while his odds to score an anytime touchdown are listed at +105.
There are a couple of ways to play Warren’s prop bet market in this one if he does indeed suit up and play. The most obvious one that stands out is the rushing yards line given the matchup. The Dolphins rank 27th in the NFL with 131.9 rushing yards allowed per game while conceding 4.8 YPC, which falls 28th as well. While just 22nd in defensive EPA/rush, Miami’s front seven truly struggles to bottle up opposing run games and gives up the 10th-most rushing yards and seventh-highest YPC to the running back position in particular. While Warren doesn’t see impressive volume by any means, he should log at least 10-12 carries minimum if active as the Steelers look to control the clock and keep the ball out of the hands of their opponents’ hands. He’s gone over this line in exactly half of his games as well — including six of his last nine appearances — so the hit rate looks reliable, too.
In addition to the over on his rushing yards prop, the over on receiving yards also deserves consideration. While Warren’s exceeded 13.5 yards through the air just twice since Week 7, he’s still gone over the line in half of his total contests. The matchup provides room for encouragement with the Dolphins giving up the eighth-most receiving yards to halfbacks despite sitting around the middle of the pack in receptions conceded to the position. All it takes is one chunk gain for Warren to hit this over as well.
Best Bet: Jaylen Warren over 49.5 receiving yards (-114)
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