The 2025 Minnesota Vikings season has been like a teenager finally getting his driver’s license. Full of joy and optimism, but then realizing that the car is a stick shift. Then came the crashes and hospital visits.
J.J. McCarthy was bad in the first two games of the season, then suffered an injury. Carson Wentz, yes, that Carson Wentz, started the next five games, throwing for over 300 yards in two contests and leading the Vikings to two wins. McCarthy returned for four games, guiding Minnesota to one win while throwing for over 200 yards just once. Max Brosmer got a start due to another injury for McCarthy, but McCarthy returned last week and looked, dare I say good, throwing three touchdowns.
The prospects for the positive momentum to continue for McCarthy are high because Dallas has allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback and the most passing touchdowns (29) on the season. Dallas is tops in pressure rate, though, at 32.2%, the only team above 30%, so not all is sunshine and unicorns. Dallas has allowed the second-highest EPA per carry on defense with 4.7 yards per carry and 17 rushing touchdowns. Minnesota is 21st in EPA per carry on offense, averaging 4.6 yards per carry with only nine rushing touchdowns.
Kevin O’Connell will likely want to ground-and-pound, then take shots when the defense gets sucked in. Unfortunately, the Dallas offense may have something to say about that because Dak Prescott has been great this season, guiding the Cowboys to the seventh-highest EPA per dropback. He’s completed 69% of his passes and thrown 27 touchdowns. The pass defense for Minnesota has been good, posting the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback. Only 14 touchdowns have been allowed, but the unit has racked up only five interceptions and 33 sacks.
The run game for Dallas has posted the 15th-highest EPA per carry while averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 13 rushing touchdowns. Minnesota has allowed 4.1 yards per carry with 11 rushing touchdowns. The EPA per carry is 18th-lowest.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (MIN @ DAL)
TE Josh Oliver – Minnesota Vikings ($2,800)
Oliver has 11 targets on the season. Last week, he caught both targets for touchdowns, finishing with 16.4 FPTS. The probabilities of lightning striking my head are higher than Oliver replicating the Week 14 performance, but Oliver did play 63% of the snaps last week and has been in the 30-50% range the prior three weeks. There’s a chance that Prescott puts up points, which would likely elevate the passing volume for McCarthy.
TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings ($4,000)
Hockenson played 56% of the snaps last week, but he’s often in the 80% or higher range. Hockenson garnered three targets last week with one red zone opportunity. He does have six games with at least five targets. As mentioned in the Oliver section, there’s a chance McCarthy may have to sling it around more this week.
WR Ryan Flournoy, Dallas Cowboys ($4,800)
Thirteen targets! That’s how many Flournoy garnered last week. His prior high was nine. It’s highly unlikely Flournoy gets close to double digits again, as the game environment last week called for Prescott to throw 47 times in comeback mode and CeeDee Lamb suffered a concussion, limiting him to 46% of the snaps. That said, Flournoy should be out there for around 40% of the snaps and he’s shown that he can be productive when given the opportunity, putting up over 20 FPTS in two contests this season.
