Pittsburgh currently sits atop the AFC North with a 7-6 record, despite having only one winning streak of two games and Aaron Rodgers throwing for under 200 yards five times. But wins are wins. How are they doing it?
Aaron Rodgers leads a passing attack that is 12th-lowest in EPA per dropback. He’s thrown seven interceptions but has 20 passing touchdowns while only being sacked 20 times, the third-fewest. The rushing attack hasn’t been great, averaging 3.9 yards per carry with 10 touchdowns. The EPA per carry is 14th-lowest.
Is it the defense? Well, the rush defense has been porous, allowing the sixth-highest EPA per carry. Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns. The pass defense has allowed the 14th-lowest EPA per dropback with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Pittsburgh is only 20th in pressure rate while being fourth in blitz rate. The 36 sacks are sixth-most, though.
Miami has had somewhat of a resurgence. After losing six of the first seven games, the Dolphins have won six of the last seven games, with now four straight. Granted, wins over the Jets, New Orleans and Washington aren’t impressive, but Miami did pummel the Bills, 30-13. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in the last four contests while De’Von Achane has rushed for over 100 yards in three while Jaylen Wright racked up over 100 yards in the other. That game was a blowout and Achane put up 92 yards on seven carries. So, the run game has been vital.
As for the defense, Miami is 16th in EPA per carry on the season, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns. Through the air, the EPA per dropback is ninth-highest with 20 passing touchdowns allowed. The unit has racked up seven interceptions and 31 sacks. The pressure rate is 15th-best.
DraftKings Sportsbook has PIT -3 over MIA with the total at 42.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (MIA @ PIT)
Captain’s Picks
De’Von Achane ($19,200 CP): Miami used to be about Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa, but the straw that now stirs the teal drink is Achane. The run game has taken on more emphasis, and that should be a priority in this one to protect Tua from the Blitzburgh defense. Achane has game-breaking speed and can score from anywhere on the field, but what makes him most deadly is his ability as a receiver. The 73 receptions on the season is second on the team. Achane has put up double-digit FPTS in every game this season with six over 20 and a high of 43.5 FPTS.
UTIL Plays
Darnell Washington ($2,600): It’s a three-headed tight end monster in Pittsburgh with all three separated by only $400. Washington is the cheapest but I’d be good with any of them. I just didn’t want to write them all up. I did in the past and it looked clunky. Miami has allowed the third-most FPTS to tight ends this season so one of the heads is going to eat.
Darren Waller ($4,400): Waller is only playing around 40% of the snaps, but when he’s on the field, he’s out there to catch passes. He garnered three targets last week, but the game was a blowout so there was not much passing volume. Despite playing only five games this season, Waller leads the tight end group with seven red zone opportunities. Miami has been generous to opposing tight ends. Well, Pittsburgh isn’t too far behind, allowing the sixth-most FPTS on average to the position.
DK Metcalf ($9,400): The fantasy production for Metcalf hasn’t been robust this season, but that’s due to the low passing volume and low aDOT from Rodgers. That said, he’s been the alpha receiver, leading the team with 87 targets. Last week, he garnered a whopping 12 targets.
Fades
Jaylen Waddle ($10,800): With Tyreek Hill out, Waddle has moved up the passing totem pole and leads the team with 86 targets. I’m not a fan of the price tag, though, and worry a bit about the blitzing from Pittsburgh. It’s never fun fading a player of this caliber, but he hasn’t seen 10 targets in a game all season. In addition, my story centers around Achane.
THE OUTCOME
Both teams will likely want to run the ball while complementing with short, high-percentage passes. As a result, overall play volume will likely be muted on both sides. I expect a low-scoring yet competitive game with the home team prevailing at the end of the night.
Final Score: Dolphins 20, Steelers 23
