For the first time since 2015-16, the North East Derby is once again a Premier League fixture. With Sunderland achieving promotion back to the Premier League prior to the 2025-26 season for the first time since 2016-17, the historic rivals will face off for the first time this season — and it just so happens that they’re separated by one point and three places in the crowded table.
The rivalry match will kick off at 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local) on Sunday at the Stadium of Light on the northern banks of the river Wear. It’s the match that Black Cats fans have surely been looking forward to the most since achieving promotion.
Newcastle is a +130 favorite to win and +225 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Sunderland is +225 on the Moneyline.
Sunderland vs. Newcastle prediction, pick
After each of the newly-promoted sides were relegated immediately in each of the last two Premier League seasons, one newly-promoted team is almost guaranteed to survive the drop in 2024-25, thanks to Wolves getting just two points from their first 15 matches. Barring an absolute disaster, the Black Cats will play in the Premier League next season, as though their form has stagnated somewhat as of late, they’ve spent much of the season in the top four and are as close to first-place Arsenal as they are to the drop zone.
Swiss captain Granit Xhaka, whom Sunderland signed for 15 million Euros during the summer, has proven to be one of England’s best acquisitions, as he’s tied for the team lead with five goal contributions. He and French duo Wilson Isidor and Enzo Le Fée have been just clinical enough in the attack for the Black Cats to win, even if they’ve scored the fifth-fewest goals in England’s top flight. Defensively, Robin Roefs ranks sixth in post-shot expected-goal plus-minus and Sunderland’s back line ranks first in tackle percentage on challenges and third in clearances.
Still, as brilliant as Xhaka and Roefs have been, the two best players on the pitch will both play for the team 12 miles to the northeast. Though the Magpies sit just 12th in the Premier League table, they’ve been in hot form as of late, thanks in no small part to midfielder Bruno Guimarães and striker Nick Woltemade, who are tied for the team lead with five goals apiece. In fact, Guimarães ranks second in the division in goals minus expected goals.
In between the sticks, Nick Pope ranks fourth in save percentage (right behind Roefs), as well as fourth in clean sheet percentage, which could be critical, given that Newcastle has conceded 0.56 fewer shots on target per 90 minutes than the Black Cats have. However, I wouldn’t call the Magpies clinical defensively: they do have the league’s worst tackle rate on challenges and have recorded among the fewest clearances, which could be a problem against a Sunderland team that has among the best dribblers in the Premier League. In part because they’ve let opponents slip in behind for high-quality looks, they’ve allowed more goals than the Black Cats.
On paper, Newcastle should be a clear favorite, given that Sunderland has far over-performed its expected goal difference. The Magpies beat Manchester City in Week 12, and the Black Cats coming off of a 3-0 defeat against the Sky Blues. Newcastle also has had its fair share of impressive Champions League results, drawing with Bayer Leverkusen and beating Athletic Club Bilbao — two teams who would probably be favored in a hypothetical matchup against Sunderland. However, the Magpies have picked up just six points from seven games on the road, and the Black Cats haven’t yet suffered a defeat at the Stadium of Light. Every time it has seemed as if Sunderland’s hot form will fade, it has responded in convincing fashion, drawing against Arsenal and Liverpool and beating Chelsea. To me, that’s worth a +225 flier.
