The Saturday slate is loaded with high-level college basketball action. During the later window of play, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will face the Seton Hall Pirates. This battle of New Jersey teams is not as much of a heated rivalry as it used to be, but there still could be some fireworks, with the two campuses just 29 miles apart.
Looking at the odds, Seton Hall enters as a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game total is set at 131.5.
Rutgers vs. Seton Hall preview
Rutgers enters the matchup with a 5-5 record to start the year. They have lost five of their last six, falling short against Central Connecticut, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Purdue, and Michigan. The Scarlet Knights were thrown into the fire over the past three weeks and have gotten burned a bit as a result. Rutgers is 3-7 against the spread this season, with the over cashing in five of the 10 games.
NBA-bound Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are no longer with the program, leaving a much different identity this season. Dylan Grant headlines the production at 14.9 points and 6.2 rebounds while shooting 43.5% from beyond the arc. Tariq Francis is the only other Scarlet Knight averaging in double figures with 11.8 points per game. Jamichael Davis, Darren Buchanan Jr, Denis Badalau, Emmanuel Ogbole, and Bryce Dortch round out most of their notable depth. Only 20.8% of the minutes played and 14.4% of the scoring production from last year’s roster returned.
As a team, Rutgers is averaging 69.9 points per game, which ranks 317th out of the 365 D1 programs. They are posting the 279th-best offensive rating, rank 318th in team field goal percentage, 153rd in three-point percentage, and 304th in three-point volume. On the defensive end, teams are scoring 72.3 points per game against them, ranking 162nd in the country. They also own the 262nd-ranked defensive rating. Opponents are shooting 37.4% from distance, which ranks 338th.
Seton Hall is off to a 9-1 start to the season, with their lone loss coming against USC. The Pirates also have a ranked win over NC State on their resume and enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak. Seton Hall is 6-4 against the spread with the under cashing in six of their 10 games.
A.J. Staton-McCray leads the team with averages of 13.9 points and 3.8 assists while shooting 39.6% from deep. Tajuan Simpkins with a scorching 48.1% clip from three, adding 11.2 points and 3.4 rebounds. Adam Clark and Mike Williams each pitch in 9.6 points per game, with Clark leading the team at 5.4 assists per game. Elijah Fisher adds 9.1 points, while Stephon Payne, Najai Hines, and Trey Parker round out their rotation.
The Pirates are scoring just 76.1 points per game, which ranks 210th in the county. They rank 123rd in offensive rating, 181st in field goal percentage, and 165th in three-point percentage. Defensively, Seton Hall is holding teams to just 61.9 points per game. This is the 11th-best rate in the country, and they are producing the 27th-best defensive rating. They also rank 34th in opponents’ field goal percentage and force turnovers at the 32nd-best rate.
Rutgers vs. Seton Hall pick, best bet
If you like high-scoring basketball games, this probably isn’t the matchup for you. Rutgers is coming off a brutal stretch of games and it not as bad a team as their stats currently indicate. Expect this to settle out over their next stretch.
Picking themselves up off the mat after back-to-back beatdowns against Purdue and Michigan isn’t the easiest task. However, they beat UNLV by 15 points before this and started the season with four straight wins over Rider, Maine, Lehigh, and American University. Expect Rutgers to show an increased level of fight against a more comparable opponent and for both sides to dig in defensively.
131.5 is a low-scoring total, but I am backing the under in this game. Seton Hall is holding opponents to the 11th fewest points per game this season at 61.9 points per contest, and has held opponents below this average in seven of their nine wins. The most they’ve allowed all season was 83 against USC.
Rutgers’ defensive metrics are concerning, but they held Rider to 53 points and have limited opponents to 68 or fewer points in five of 10 matchups. Steve Pikiell has built the program upon a defensive identity, and holding Tennessee to 85 and Purdue to 81 is far from embarrassing.
The intrastate rivalry should crank up the intensity even further. Both these teams have flaws offensively and are willing to play at a slow pace. Expect there to be no easy buckets, and for the first team to score 55+ to have a clear path to win. Count on the defensive intensity to keep this game a low-scoring affair.
