It is a loaded Saturday slate of college basketball, with several top teams squaring off. Helping tip off the day, No. 9-ranked Michigan State will take on Penn State at Bryce Jordan Center, marking the Spartans’ first true road matchup of the season.
Looking at the odds, Michigan State enters as an 11.5-point road favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Penn State sits as a +470 underdog, and the game total is set at 144.5.
Michigan State vs. Penn State preview
The Michigan State Spartans are off to an 8-1 start, looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season against Duke. The Spartans have three ranked victories on the season, coming against Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina. Michigan State is 5-4 against the spread so far this season, with the under cashing in seven of their nine games.
Jaxon Kohler leads the team with 14.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 47.1% from beyond the arc. Jeremy Fears Jr., brother of Pelicans’ guard Jeremiah Fears, leads the country with 9.8 assists per game. He also adds 11.6 points and is shooting 38.1% from distance. Coen Carr and Carson Copper both also average in double figures.
Michigan State has established an identity as a defensive-minded team. They are holding opponents to just 61.0 points per contest, which ranks eighth in the country. The Spartans also rank 24th in defensive rating, 23rd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 41st in opponents’ three-point percentage, while rebounding the ball at a high rate. Offensively, they are scoring 76.6 points per game, which ranks 201st in the country. The Spartans rank 103rd in offensive rating, 180th in field goal percentage, and 180th in three-point percentage.
Penn State is off to an 8-2 start to the season, with its pair of losses coming against Indiana and Providence. Their schedule has not been particularly difficult to this point, with their strength of schedule not cracking the top 150 across D1 teams. The Nittany Lions are 3-7 against the spread with the game total going over in five of their 10 games.
Kayden Mingo is the team’s leading scorer at 15.4 points per game. He has, however, struggled greatly from the perimeter, connecting on just 19.4% of his three-point shots. Freddie Dilione V adds 13.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. Melih Tunca and Josh Reed each also average in double figures. Ivan Juric is the team’s leading rebounder at four boards per game, also adding 9.7 points a night.
The Nittany Lions rank 99th in the country in scoring by pouring in 82.0 points per game. They rank 48th in offensive rating, 31st in field goal percentage, and 57th in three-point percentage. Penn State is turning the ball over the third-fewest times, but ranks 323rd in three-point attempts and 339th in rebounds per contest. Defensively, opponents are scoring 74.3 points per game against them, which ranks 215th. They are posting the 270th-ranked defensive rating, while ranking 335th in opponents’ field goal percentage.
Michigan State vs. Penn State pick, best bet
Penn State is 6-0 when playing at home this season, but this is by far its biggest test of the season. Their offensive struggles, paired with Michigan State’s elite defense, are a massive cause for concern. My lean would be on Michigan State taking full control of this game and covering the 11.5-point spread.
But I am backing the game total to remain under the 144.5 point total in this matchup. Penn State has had some offensive inconsistencies while facing much weaker defenses this year. This includes being held to 65 points against Providence, 72 against Indiana in the previous game, and just 76 in their victory over Fairfield.
Michigan State has a clear identity of asserting itself defensively and making every shot difficult for opponents. Penn State’s ability to take care of the basketball will be tested, and its lack of three-point production will be clear in this matchup. The Spartans held a high-powered Duke offense to just 66 points in their previous game, kept their opponents below 58 points for four straight games, and have not allowed more than 69 points in a matchup all year.
There is no clear path to Penn State scoring more than 65 in this matchup, and a pretty likely chance they get held below 60. When Michigan State takes a lead, they are completely content playing at a slow pace and eating up clock. They’ll be especially comfortable doing so on the road. The 144.5-point total feels far too high for my liking, and I expect Michigan State’s defense to be the story of this game. The under has hit in seven of Michigan State’s nine games thus far — look for this streak to continue.
