Historic rivals are set to clash once again this afternoon when #11 Louisville hosts Memphis. These two programs are heading in different directions this season. The Cardinals have rebuilt themselves under head coach Pat Kelsey, returning to national prominence. It’s been a much tougher go for the Tigers, currently at 4-4. Still, in this grudge match, throw the records out the window.
Which team has the edge going into this non-conference showdown? Louisville enters Saturday as 16.5-point favorites (-108) over Memphis. The total is set at 159.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Tigers and the Cardinals.
Memphis vs. Louisville prediction, preview
The Cardinals ranked among the ACC’s best last season, Kelsey’s first with the program. Still, their roster underwent a massive overhaul this summer. Xavier transfer Ryan Conwell has made the biggest impact, posting a team-leading 19.7 points per game. In addition, the senior is shooting 42.0% from three-point range. However, this is one of the nation’s more well-rounded offenses. Five different Louisville players are putting up at least 9.8 points per game. As a result, the team is averaging the tenth-most points in college basketball (93.8). That includes fellow guards Mikel Brown (16.7 PPG) and Isaac McKneely (12.4 PPG).
It’s easy to forget, but the Cardinals play well on the other end of the floor, as well. Their 90.9 defensive rating is college basketball’s 19th-best mark. Still, Louisville plays at the ACC’s third-quickest pace on offense (74.3). Therefore, don’t be shocked if there’s a decent amount of scoring on Saturday. Big man Sananda Fru could play a key role for the home team this weekend. He leads the Cards with 6.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game.
For the visitors, winning will be an uphill climb (but not impossible). If an upset is to occur, it’ll likely take a terrific showing from Dug McDaniel. The guard leads an offensively-limited Tigers squad with 13.9 points and 6.4 assists per game. No other player on Memphis’s roster is averaging more than 9.1 points. With that being said, scoring isn’t the strength of this group. The Tigers rank 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
As evidenced by their .500 record, the Tigers have failed to impress over the past month. However, they’ve come close on a number of different occasions. Single-digit defeats against Purdue, Ole Miss and Wake Forest have stung for Penny Hardaway’s club. In comparison, Louisville has earned solid non-conference victories over Kentucky and Indiana. Still, the team is somewhat untested compared to other national title contenders.
Memphis vs. Louisville pick, best bet
Quality wins have been hard to come by for Memphis this season. Regardless, this group has stood its own against high-end programs. The Tigers have a respectable +13.04 adjusted efficiency margin, the nation’s 65th-best mark. If their stout defense manages to slow down Conwell to some degree, this could become a low-scoring battle. With respect to a loaded Louisville roster, don’t expect a blowout when these two rivals take the court.
